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============== I have tested this approach. But like a lot of things w/r trading that sound intuitively correct, empirical testing doesn't show results that point to any merit. Having said that there is an infinite number of possibilities one could be testing the hypothesis with, and some...

============ The actual point I made was on optimization, not curve fitting, and they are two different things as it applies to trading system development. I have attempted to explain that while model selection and parameter selection mean different things to you, they in fact come with...

++++ "Proper" pre calculas labels or the mathematians definition of "absurd" is irrelevant. What is relevant is that in developing trading strategies, any time you introduce an input with a range of possible parameters you will be optimizing your trading system. Under the above scenario...

My experience is if you run a random entry with a simple dollar stop, an "n" period high/ low stop, a "n" period swing high/low or any combination thereof, it will not make any money over most intervals. The exceptions will be the outliers that have a powerful move that luckily the system was...

============== What is absurd is that you somehow from my statement come to the conclusion I believe or said that "every mathematical model is curve fit"!!! In a practical sense for developing trading strategies, not handing in a university math paper, any time you introduce an input with...

============ IMO any input that can vary is an optimzable variable or parameter. There are no marks from the market for using what might be the "correct" term in a university math class. In a practical sense both n and x are optimizable. No matter name you put on the variable, parameter...

============= I have seen that view expounded before, but never with any evidence that it is true... is there any evidence? The thought that random or worse entries can be tortured to produce winning trades is a glaring invitation to over optimization.

Each bar, and more appropriate if you are using daily bars, has 4 components. Additionally you have a "lookback period". This gives a assortment of combinations. You don't need too long a lookback period. The rest I'll leave to you. Its right there.

Yes ... if you are using ATR as a Volatility Breakout Entry.

============ Also my experience is you can trend follow with substatially better entry techniques then moving average crossovers or N period breakouts; though the equity curve posted would refute that, so far that is my personal research experience. Also in my experience using what I consider...

Regarding the equity curve posted it is fantastic. Using an N Day breakout it looks very, very substantially different then my N day breakout tests. In fact the 1,000,000% gain dwarfs anything I've ever worked on. Congratulations!

Look around and see if you can find another measure other then straight ATR to measure your breakouits. That alone will be a significant boost to your results.

=================== No disrespect to you intended, my apologies if you took offence. My point was that a lot writing done by the source you quoted is intended to take your eye off the ball, and not for your benefit. Nothing there will help you until you are 95% done all the hard work, and...

I posted this in another thread but it is this thread that really prompted it. The "markets change" is an excuse for the poor performance of something that was not a true edge to start with. For example a "trend following" strategy that uses a "N" bar breakout or a moving average crossover...

The "markets change" is an excuse for the poor performance of something that was not a true edge to start with. For example a "trend following" strategy that uses a "N" bar breakout or a moving average crossover is NOT an edge. It WILL therefore cease to work when the market stops trending in...

"Personally, I like what Van Tharp has to say about developing not just one system to fit all market conditions, which is difficult, but to have at least three well-developed systems for various markets. Here's a quick take from his book Super Trader, 2009: I like this idea of having...

Go to the thread by TalonTrading you will see a system that will work forever because it is based on inherent market character that really can't be avoided unless market shuts down. That is totally different then temporary edges that invlove some pattern in an indicator or price bars. The latter...

I am intrigued that there is disagreement on stops. I would never have suspected that. Even more intrigued that everyone believes trailing stops out perform profit objectives.

Definition of a great thread: Player 1 knows of which he speaks and has walked the talk Player 1 exposes the detractors only by letting them talk and expose themselves. Player 1 thread provides a great reference for this thread but also of who to ignore in all other threads...

I have trading systems or edges if you will -- that after a winner or series of wins the historical probability of the next trade or next "N" trades being net winner(s) is still at or above the overall system average. I also have systems that after 2 or 3 consecutive wins the probability of...