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100% agreed asterisk. the 90 day moving average for the stock/bond ratio was way out whack recently.

well, at least 12 months...average return for holding the SP when mutual fund cash levels are as low as they are now is -10%. 2 winners, 15 losers. i like those odds, but i could be damn wrong here.

two year trade to the downside at the very least, duard, in my opinion

oex traders getting more bearish yesterday. we'll see if trend continues. rydex fund flow getting too bullish. looking as though near a ST top here, probably a LT too.

my girlfriend is only a C cup...how much is min account req for me to get my hands on a nice pair of DDs?

i actually know when it will break. i'm not telling anyone, though. that's why i'm a multi-hundredaire many, many times over...oh, if ye only had the riches i do.

you, know, i think you're right in the short term. more rise here. i can't argue with it. i think we have a month or so to go here.

i am interested to see how you do at the end of the year. good luck.

after the fact analysis or not, i thought it was a pretty good post.

highly, highly doubtful IMHO, but maybe you are right. wondering what what you cite as driving your reasons. is it just a hunch? also curious how large your account is and how long you've been doing this? thanks

yes, i'm short. i expect my position to go against me for a little bit here, but my horizon is a two year trade. for a short term move down, i will feel a little more confident if i see a little cash flowing into rydex bull funds and the OEX traders getting bearish. but looking at a 10...

tuby, this is probably the final stage in this bull market. my guess is we have as much as a month and a half more of upside, but it's prolly limited to two weeks or so. the smart money is out of the game right now, but we need a little more dumb money to push up prices, IMHO, before the...

you have to adjust this for inflation, my friends.

good luck, ntb

i think you're getting your explosion...in the wrong direction though...:confused: :eek: you can never be sure of anything. feelings like that will kill you in this game.

thanks for the kind words, setharb. i am managing OPM this month. it's a tiny amount, but the point is to show i can grow OPM rather than sell and take a management fee. it's been a very long and interesting journey to get to this point, and i still have a lot to learn and likely many humbling...

i make long term (relative to a lot of ppl here) trades. i was long junior gold and silver stocks from june 05 until last week. i made about 80% on that trade...about 400K USD. was long dez, auy, mng, nxg, ego, grs, bgo, cde. risk reward is not there for me to stick with the trade anymore...

holy sugarpuffs...19 properties and broke!??!

these ads sound a lot like car dealer clearance sales. is this behavior by new home builders typical before a housing slump?

it might be a good idea to analyze the strength of the bond market after the fed stops cutting rates. this might be a better idea than drawing elliot waves, poking voodoo dolls, studying tea leaves or trying to apply other forms of black magic to get a "read" on the bond market.