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the last time i saw this was in 93 when the hang seng parabolically doubled in a year. the next year it was in free fall from january, losing 30% over the course of the year, fund allocaters be damned.

i think we think alike in terms of macro, but man you are cray cray to go long a high beta like the NAZ as the long pair to your housing short. you might consider as your long pair a a mix of dow stocks that don't get hit that bad during a downturn KO, MCD, MMM, PG.

delusion schoomsion. i got two guys up 20%+ for me this year, one guy break even. they can do better, but i'll take it. when there's a rumble in the currency market, they're making money. it's nice cuz i it's dollar crash insurance, but i own the policy which keeps increasing in value.

i have to agree about HSI. it's a blow off top and it'll crumple like urkle in a steel cage match soon enough. the housing sales figure always gets revised, so i wouldn't put to much stock in it. if you read the press release in full, the gov even says that the stats have a huge margin of...

this is hilarious. reminds me of may. there were a ton of bearish threads out there. the bears just kept on calling top top top. no avail. the bulls were taunting saying wait for the trend. then the floor fell out of the naz hard. i really don't care if there are a lot of ET threads that are...

talking with some aquaintances, and yes, hairdressers and registered nurses are once again getting back into the stock game.

exactly. it's pretty funny actually. forget about testing the sentiment in the US market - you have to test the sentiment in the global markets. intl markets come down, it pressures the US. the hilarious thing is expectations for the intl markets are to continue their pace. oh really? so china...

the markets are toast in 07. recession a high, high probability.

blow off top baby, baby. asia is due for a crashing - vietnam's P/E is near 50. chinese indices up 100% in a year, up over 8% in the last 5 days. it's a classic blow off top. short china.

i believe RE will get killed, but pls be wary of those comstock guys. they're a bear fund, so they only look for negative news. they're usually wrong, when they're right, they're right when when hardly anyone else is.

i don't think the us gov is the biggest loser in a deflationary environment at all. other country's gov's are more at risk. furthermore, gov paper becomes a favored investment vehicle (japan in 90s, USA in 1930s). gov debt is safer than corporate. plus the government can just tax the rich...

for most emerging economies, china included, deflation is by far the biggest threat right now. the reason is that these economies are entireley leveraged upon the consumption of the US consumer, which is in turn very tied to the price of us housing (housing related employment, home equity...

this is just so wrong. there's no historical precedent for a nation's goods getting more expensive for its trading partners after an economic collapse. goods coming from a collapsed economy are almost always cheaper in real terms, and the impact of this is deflationary on an importing nation's...

we are a couple months into a rate pause and you're really already intimating that this is a soft landing? way too early to tell my friend.

Tell that to the Japanese. "But they're different." Yeah, right, they actually had savings.

even a way to cap buying power would be great, if known.

Is it possible to tell TWS the maximum number of transactions you want it to execute in a day without the customer having to tap into the API? thanks

hmmm...i entered a bunch in. let's see if they get negged. thanks, gig.

you're right pepper. i live in china currently. that guy seemed to be talking hyperbole just to get attention.

exactly...a middlware of sorts. i'm looking at the button trader demo right now. my ideal software lets me enter the trades and leave the computer.