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:) :)

Wag, I assume by Prcie, you mean price of the short strike?

Thanks Cache, I use OX and I'm not aware of any app. that calculates probability...they do have a pricing app. though. Re: the use of delta as an approximation, I assume a delta of .05 would equate to 5% chance of finishing in the money. Also, when IV spikes higher than historical vol...

On this board, I hear quite often references to 1 /2 sigma, etc.. I'm aware this is associated with stnd. deviations ...2 sigma I believe would then captute 67% of all moves for a particular time period, 3 sigma would be 92% (is this right?) But does someone on the board now how to calculate...

I am just learning how to effectively hedge as well. My feeling about your #2 (Dan Sheridan) option is this.....bottomline is when your are putting on the hedge "ear", you are creating a debit spread close to your short position (if your trading 5-15point spreads). The primary effect of this...

Ya, when I closed mine out today alond with my 1280's, I only got .50....seems like if should be much closer to .8 or .9 by now. So what are you doing now with your 1275's? Seems like your hedge is covering about 50% of current losses

Good luck with the 1275....with the hedge you have, I agree, you should be ok, unless of course the institutions step things up a bit this afternoon, which would be doubtful. BTW, I did close the 1280 at 10:00 this AM b/f the breach @ 1285... Have you/do you regularly hedge as I described...

Things got a little too hot for me today. Ended up selling the spread --covered approx. half the loss with my debit hedge and of course the call side of the IC. Still, wiped out 2 months of gains....just took a bit too much risk legging into the put side of the IC this month. Discipline is...

Nice trade today... Beautifully done! Put a little too much emphasis on the RSI this month for the bull put and didn't wait for my stochastic confirmation. For May I have: 1340/45 @ .55 1350/55 @ .40 1280/70 @ .5 (bought at 1310) 129/128 debit spread for a hedge on the 1280...not...

Piccon, Did you place any bull put's today? Could have probably got something decent in the 1270 to 1260's for a 3 day hold. I'm Still hanging tough on the 1280's....nice bounce at the end of the day:)

Piccon, Still holding it b/c I do expect a bounce. I clearly pulled the trigger a bit fast on it. I based my entry of RSI (3) at 20...but didn't wait for the OS stochastic reading.... With 5 days to go and a 1rst legs of an IC in at 1340 and 1350, lots of liquidity and an medium- term...

Actually correction...I did just get my hedge at close after market posting

I take it you have a MAY bull put spread somewhere close? did you leave it unheged? I was debatingthe same thing for my May 1280 short....tried to put on a small SPY hege before close but MM's were not even giving a nickel....

Piccon, I'm already in the MAY 1280/1270, perhaps a bit prematurely. What occilators do you use to time your entry? For the past few months I've I like the RSI 3 day for shorter-term entries and the slow line of 7-3-3 full stochastic in OB/OS conditions coupled with volume analysis for more...

Thanks, that what I thought...so the cash index will print the aggregate price of number of stocks that open at 9:30...even if the number is 400+. The SET is based on the opening price of all 500, which may be sometime after 9:30. Does anyone know if the latest a SET has been established?

Cache, you said the SET: "can ( and almost always does) differ from both the Thursday closing price of the index as well as the Friday opening price of the index." As a relatively new spread trader, what suprised me the most about SET is that it can also differ from Friday's opening...

Novice back at ya: it is the price that the spx settles for at the open or expiration. In many case the SET can be substantially different from Thursday's close. Others may have more experience with it, but there have been some overnight moves such that the SET is 1-2% higher/lower than close...

Ah, momo, bask in the glow of inexperience that radiates from a the novice spread trader.... I've haven't had to face off in a serious way with lady SET yet...although if she looks anything like Bartiromo in that earlier evening dress pic, I'll likely be on all fours, or at at a minimum on the...

Ya, thanks. Likely out of the woods with my May bear calls at 1340 and 1350; in fact just just closed out my hedge. Needed alittle something to keep me humming for next week. Personally I think we bounce next week a bit off of the 1300 to 1295 area. will see!!