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Both good points. No I have not back tested it so it is somewhat unfair of me to say that it does not work although I would be prepared to bet a lot of money that it does not work. The reason that I have not back tested it is that I don't have the "magic formula" to back test. There is...

I'm not actually asking if the methodology works or not - it's fairly obvious that it does not. The opinion that I'm looking for is: Do you think that this an outright scam such as a ponzi scam or the like?

Someone calling themselves Bruce Kenison and selling his Counting Numbers system has been posting his adverts furiously on trading forums. There may have been one posted here on Elite but my search could not find one - it may have been deleted by a moderator. Anyway, there was one posted...

Create MP chart online with your data: TPO Chart Generator

About 18 months ago I took a hard look at the Crabel methods and back tested a bunch of stuff. (I ran a gazillion back tests). I published some of the results here: http://www.deltat1.com/Strategies/day_type/ What I found was that some of the stuff made money but nothing produced a smooth...

But do one of the 10 cities behave like low, mid, high end housing markets - i.e. proxy. New cities (Vegas) versus old cities (Boston) City size...

That might not be a bad play. I remember the housing bust in London at the beginning of the 90's and the only areas unaffected were the affluent Chelsea & Kensington, Knightsbridge, and Mayfair where the prices continued to appreciate by 2 to 5% per year while the rest of the city (and country)...

True - those partridges are impossible to arb.

I don't know the composition of the Chicago Housing index and I'm not going to go hunting for it but it is published and it is possible to arb the actual physical houses against the future. Do you think that the CME would say that if they didn't believe it to be true?

How is that missing from the Housing futures? It's all there as well. At the launch of the CME Housing Futures the creators of the index discussed the possibility of a dedicated set of professionals who would be able to do exactly that. i.e. arb the underlying against the future. Just like they...

67.74% of poeple voting on this poll, as I type this, think that the housing market in the US is going to drop. Here is a chart showing the historic and futures together using this week's futures' prices for the housing index: Blended Housing Futures Chart

That is basically the point that I am making and the chart that I created and extrapolated forward shows that the SP pit contract will stop trading a lot earlier than people on this poll have voted.

What is it that you hear from the floor that makes you say that?

You're welcome. How did you do yesterday? (Thursday)

Reminder that tomorrow is Fed Day. Expected rise is 0.25% to 5.25% Anything outside this will send the market into even more of a frenzy.

So John47 - do you think the pit is heading south or not?

Can you elaborate? I don't fully understand... What does ED stand for?

I agree - very difficult to find information about this ellusive future. I did take some snapshots during live trading on Monday and posted them at the bottom of this page so it looks like there is some activity but still very difficult to find the history associated with that activity. If...

It's mentioned in today's Wall Street Journal. I've posted some comments on it here: Simulating Pit Noise

Monday week (19 June) is one of these Monday's right? Have you run this test yet?