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Thanks for reporting that. I think that it would be great if we had a Trick or Trade forum here on Elite Trader but that might conflict with the main drive of Elite. I have set-up a sub-forum on my site and called it Trick or Trade and perhaps this can be used to continue the reporting that the...

Today's Camarilla levels for the ES based on yesterday's RTH values for the ES. Let's see if they work. <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=731978>

What happened?

If you read Fooled by Randomness (i think that it's in this book) he explains how you should just take one big gamble if the odds are against you: i.e. 0.49 chance of success or lower. But if the odds are in your favor (0.51 or better) then you should play the law of large numbers like the...

Interesting that you can't calculate your average profit. It would drive me nuts if I couldn't do that. I have all my trades in an Excel spreadsheet and you can get the average profit in 5 seconds - and tons of other stats - like average time in trades that were more profitable than 3 points -...

I'm guessing (from what you've said) that your win/loss ratio is low but your winners are big. You probably have a lot of trades that lose a little or make a little or scratch and then very few of the big runs - but when you hit them they're big. May I ask, what is your average hold time for...

spike500: what instrument(s) do you trade? and are you a day/swing/scalp/combo trader?

:) - I thought I'd broken some sort of rule here :) I take the Fooled by Randomness approach to all comments that I receive from any source. I've written a very sophisticated (IMO) back testing system and I love running all these myths through it and finding out what really works and what...

True - I was thinking in terms of trading futures - hadn't considered a gamble here.

Not sure I follow ElectricSavant? Did I do something wrong?

How?

Obviously still 50/50. But I said an unfair coin and the law of large numbers... So I don't understand your example...yet...

Please explain why...

Very true. The law of large numbers says that if you had an unfair coin then by betting on the side with the unfair advantage will have you winning and it's just a numbers game after that.

So someone skilled in pattern recognition would be a naturally good trader then? What other profession cultivates the skill of pattern recognition? And has anyone measured the success of people moving from that industry to trading? For example - muscians - are they good at pattern...

The FOMC meeting is likely to bring in a widely anticipated 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate target. Market players will be more interested in the post-meeting statement. Will the word "measured" be deleted from the statement? That is the current expectation. However, it is...

You can let it expire but that means that it will cash settle at the settlement price on expirey. However, this probably doesn't fit into your trading strategy and the reason that you're in this trade. Think about why you are in this position: It's obviously a swing position and you should...

I completely agree NihabaAshi. I ignore the fact that it's a rollover except to change the symbol that I'm trading. When does Eurex roll its equity indices?

Interesting to know - thanks 5yr. I wonder what the reward vs effort is in refining this sort of technique? Because it only happens 4 times a year it seems that you could spend a lot of time developing a winning strategy for those days but it would have to be an exceptional strategy to justify...

caught me by surprise as well :)