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It is a huge difference but in the opposite of how the news stories present the narrative. I would never in a million years want to go back to the old days before all this came about. PFOF and Commission free trading is the greatest thing of my trading life. I would say SLV is the least...

People speak as if we have found a textbook on nuclear physics that is going to read itself and create a bomb. There is an obvious and clear path from word vectors that King – Man + Woman = Queen to chatGPT but to extend this to basically everything is just confusing reality and Isaac Asimov...

I just got this today from Amazon. I am not completely sure how I stumbled across it. I think I have a fetish for this kind of book by an intellectual heavyweight that is old and not very popular. I just can't resist that title though and a non-math book after looking at Ruelle's wiki page.

I would say its more like gold left the station in early March and has been dragging silver along with it. Gold is pretty much crushing the nominal all time high right now. I keep worrying I am going to wake up and something has blown up or another war broke out. I tried to scalp the...

I think we were on this path in 2006-2007 and then the financial crisis wiped out a whole generation of retail traders. Finally, enough time has passed that there is a new generation of retail traders. When we can trade with no commissions at all there should be a lot of retail trading going...

Or in other words, the George Box quote: "It has been said that "all models are wrong but some models are useful." In other words, any model is at best a useful fiction—there never was, or ever will be, an exactly normal distribution or an exact linear relationship. Nevertheless, enormous...

You could also look at this the other way with how hard it has been to do better than chatGPT4. Claude 3 may have gained an edge at this point but it isn't even enough to get me to switch after a year of chatGPT4. I would have thought a year ago that I would be using something more advanced...

Thomas Cover's Universal Portfolio could be considered an implementation of Shannon's Demon I believe. There is quite a bit of information on the subject if you look up universal portfolios. It is one of those ideas I always want to explore but always hit some kind of wall.

I don't particularity doubt this story. The real problem is to achieve those returns you would have to risk going back to $10k at basically every step. 2013 is also a rather ideal year to start trading with tons of risk in retrospect. He basically won the QE lottery. Theodorus Struyck is more...

You don't need to understand the math to understand Taleb's black paper argument. His argument is that if bitcoin is ever worth zero in the future then its present value is zero now. "Earnings-free assets with no residual value are problematic. The implication is that, owing to the absence of...

I would be much more interested if the symbol wasn't QBTS. While that is not on the level of Marc Cohodes "wig indicator" (basically if the CEO of a company wears a wig you should short the stock) it doesn't seem like the way a company that believed in their brand would go about this and a bit...

It is a great point and obviously a big hurdle as an American. On the other hand, there is an objective problem that would extend across cultures in that it is hard to take a loss if you have no confidence in what you are doing is going to produce winners. My experience is that winning trades...

I have not and would never consider trading the Ags because I am not a farmer. I have been in a corn field before but I barely know what I am looking at besides the ear of corn. If I grew up on a farm that would be so different. I would know so much about all the variables involved. Instead, I...

Personally, I am going to wait for Mr Market to take TSLA down even further in a market wide sell off and then try to figure out how the price looks as a company. This is certainly not the time to try to buy value. Besides for China and some of the heavy China dependent economies, everything...

I don't see why you would bother with the entire ETF universe. You quickly get into illiquid junk when you start breaking down all the available ETFs. My current basket is about 50 and that covers a whole lot of ground and the world. US Equity I don't bother with sectors because it just isn't...

I use to have the Morgan Kaufmann Series book "Swarm Intelligence" but I can't say I figured out how to relate anything in that book to trading. Agent based models are obviously interesting but then again, the issue is how to relate this to trading. It is hard enough to model one trader...

Obviously, the problem with discrete full kelly is you could think you have an edge at the black jack table from your card counting when in reality you are playing a negative EV game of craps. Even more importantly though is I show continuous full kelly on QQQ buy and hold going back a year is...

You could replace "monte carlo" in your original post with "math" or "computer code" and not be wrong . It is just not informative to do so. You could argue that the bootstrap, jackknife and resampling in general are all sub categories of monte carlo methods. It is a broad class of methods...