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Didn't say I believed him. Does it matter? I'm short from 924.50 with a 4 pt. stop. Will exit on close if not stopped out. Does anyone really care? Nah, we're just killing time while the market does it's thing. BTW, the first 30 min. range was high 928.50 - low 924.00, so if Wally got 5 pts. out...

5pts. out of a 7 pt. range so far....that's some pretty fine trading, Wally.

The value of Toby's work is not in the output, it is in the process. Inside days, outside days, wide range days, ORB, ORBP, etc. are just some of the ideas generated from the methods he used to perform tests on various markets. The true value of the book is how he found the value of an inside...

You can trade just about anything. The key is to separate the account from the broker. By setting up a account at a firm that just acts as the plan administrator, you can do anything in an IRA (buy/sell futures, sell naked options, speculate in a horse racing partnership, oil drilling...

This exercise was used by the firm that trained me when I started out as a trader. In it's original form it was used to weed out traders that were not mentally ready to trade. If you do the work, you'll know when you're ready to trade. Preparation: You'll need to print out charts in...

Maybe not at IB. But at RB&H I could (daytrade emini initial margin is $800). That would leave $700 or about 12 pts. + comm. for trading. I'm sure I could make a profit with 12 pts. for the max. drawdown on 1 emini doing daytrading. Couldn't hold overnite, but then again I would only daytrade if...

I know I could start daytrading 1 ES with $1,500 and grow it. It's not enough to live on, but it is enough to succeed over time.

Just for grins, I thought I'd post the results of one of my daytrading edges over the same period. This is a breakout edge:

The difference is caused by the neither the profit target or stop loss being hit. In that case I put in a exit MOC to make sure we start fresh each day. The shortened trading periods before holidays caused the biggest problem. A smaller part of the problem is that the market may have gapped...

And here's the results of the 60 min. breakout. Both were done using the 1% of SP 500 target.

Here's the results for your 30min. breakout:

I thought you guys were done. Here's the results this test:

Here's the results

Here's the results

Here's another twist. The one day std. dev. has been about 15 pts. since 1997. Here's what happens when you truncate the loss to 1/2 of a std. deviation instead of a fixed # of points.

Here's something that may be a bit interesting to those using profit targets. How about a test with a 3 point stop and NO profit target. If not stopped out, just exit on the close. Once again, the old cut losses short let profits run.

And last, here's the equity curve over the 4 1/2 period for the first test. You can see the behavior has been consistent throughout the test period. It not very strong, but it is consistent.

Here's the TS code for the first test in case anyone else wants to compare results.

Here's the second test results. Since you only had one variable to check I just reversed it. A random test would be meaningless as we'd need to run it hundreds of times to get a distribution of returns and then figure the mean to compare with the original test.

I noticed in setting up for the test, that you wanted emini data before the open till the stock close. I don't have that. These tests are on the SP futures market beginning with 9:30 and ending at 4:15 pm. The results assume no slippage or commissions. I ran the tests from 1/1/97 - 7/31/2001 as...