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Lazy answer (but a sincere one): survivorship bias.

Excellent answer! I'm still trying to digest the "rescaling the forward looking return..." (Could you elaborate it, please?), but everything you wrote sounded good (my bull sh*t detector didn't activate :D). Just for clarification (as I said in another post), I usually talk "academically"...

I know it's a rhetorical question (right?), but yes I felt like a lotto winner (in the end). If I had made those $50k in my options portfolio, I'd think that I was just doing the right thing (cause and effect illusion).

It was surreal. CL is a beast! I knew it was a directional market, but I was making money in pullback days too. My longest winning streak was 22 days! I was invincible, it can't be just coincidence, right? Wrong!

90,000 US dollars! As I said, I was trading 500 contracts (I think the number is 50 actually... idk, it was almost 5 years ago) in a +$200k account, with a "mental" stop loss. As a mathematician, today I know what happened: sometimes prices "jump" between levels. In theory it's called jump...

Imagine that percentage is a parameter p that you want to optimize. So you'll get some historical data and run montecarlo simulations. Letting the data show us the way is the obvious way to go, but we are assuming a lot of things without even knowing. We already know that returns do not follow...

1. Derivatives and, in particular, options, have always fascinated me: modeling is mathematically interesting involves numerical estimation methods non-intuitive nonlinear behavior leveraged its role as a financial instrument 2. My approach to options trading was inspired by "tastytrade" and...

Thank you! That's what I was looking for. :D Just to be clear (because I may be misinterpreted by someone), my interest is only intellectual, although it is necessary to do empirical tests with the developed theory. Of course, common strategies with options can be profitable without adding...

Hello, I've traded options and futures contracts in the past as a part time job and a hobby. A long time ago I learned the basics of the (classical) theory and practiced a lot using nice platforms and a couple of brokers. But I had a lot of free time and decided to "master" the theoretical...