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I wait with bated breath. Call me on one-dimensional, but I know you are currently a failure in developing any trading system... as your p/l statement already shows. Which is, of course, ridiculous. Tremendously profitable trading is obviously possible. You can look at Jim Simons' returns...

So what? In this scenario you're holding to expiration. When you hedge, you calculate delta based on your "known" future realized volatility (which guarantees a profit if true). The current market value of options, ie implied volatility, is totally irrelevant since you're never trading them...

Future implied volatility only matters if you plan on trading out of your option position. If you're holding your position indefinitely (until expiration) and only trading underlying, then future implied volatility doesn't matter.

Amen Good luck!

Uh, no. If you know realized volatility (from now until expiration) will be less than implied volatility (now), then in a BS world, you are guaranteed a profit by selling options and delta hedging until expiration. Future implied volatility does not matter.

Whenever you use a term like "would not move alot", you must be comparing it to something. If you're comparing versus current implied volatility, if you are stating that a stock is likely to be less volatile than implied volatility, then that's a world-view that can be traded: by selling...

Not that serious for a large speculator, which is why history on both sides of the Atlantic is filled with examples of attempts. And which is also why the US resorted to position limits.

Yet another story of a speculator trying to corner a market. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704118504576034083436931412.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories A few months ago, "cocoa-finger" cornered the London market in cocoa. Earlier this year, we saw Ebullio drop by 96% in 2...

Stock index futures are very new, but commodity index futures have a long history, are very sophisticated/liquid. Uhm... the regulations also apply to funds entering China, doesn't it? My experience has actually been $50k USD per person per *year* in other contexts. Regulations courtesy of...

Can someone tell me the difference between trading fx and the cme futures? What's the motivation for choosing one over the other?

Because of all the craziness in soybean (another 5% daily swing including overnight session)... the put/call skew in beans has actually flattened out. I haven't really watched the skew closely over time... but I know the put/call skew has been REALLY obvious at least this year. Very...

Well, if it's "a manager with a good track record and a respectable pool of money"... then they probably don't need a 3rd party marketer, and could reach investors other ways. The power balance would be different. For the vast, vast majority of emerging managers... the marketer has 50...

At the end of the day, it's what you negotiate. In practice... in some industries, it's a one-time payment. From what I've seen in the hedge fund/alternative investment industry, it's usually an on-going percent.

I, uh, personally don't think it's really that easy to "fall into the Madoff trap" of fudging numbers. Is it really not immediately obvious that forging performance numbers for your investors is obviously, incredibly, dangerously, serve time in prison kind of illegal?

First of all, make sure the regulatory issues are taken care of. If you're doing this as a CTA/CPO, make sure the firm "marketing" for you is properly registered with the NFA before you pay them a dime. If you're a CPO, then you also need to make sure you're meeting SEC requirements. The...

You can get live quotes/charts without an account/paying a cent. Although it probably does help to read Mandarin... I've used this program: http://www.naniu.com/soft/down.php This actually also gives you real-time quotes for CME futures as well.

"Three months earlier, Soros held 5,244,697 shares of the SPDR Gold Trust... ... Soros (at the end of September holds) 4,697,008 shares of the SPDR Gold Trust." Looks to me like he basically diversified his position. Don't see much indication he bought much.

Hi, I have some long option positions in my IB account, and some short option positions in my Vision account. These cancel out perfectly... except I have margin on both! How easy is it to transfer these positions between accounts? I'll ask my brokers too obviously, just thought I'd get...

I just mean ZSF1, the Jan 2011 futures.

Cotton has been alternating between limit up/limit down since 1.05 or so. I think its time CME permanently pulled the limit on this thing... I think it would improve the market action significantly.