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  1. Bry

    Is this a good risk management strategy?

    Never taking profits? Why would you do that? The only good reason would be that you are creating buy and hold positions, and for that you need no stop losses. Loading up on blue chip high-dividend payers would make sense for this.
  2. Bry

    Could UGAZ go to zero?

    The seekingalpha article does explain that shorting the pairs is not risk-free at all! PS, I still think UGAZ looks bottomy...low-bottomy
  3. Bry

    Could UGAZ go to zero?

    Thanks, Sig, You explain why it might be a GOOD idea to short leveraged ETFs as long as the fees aren't high; I have seen fees for them at IB at 5%/year. If a leveraged ETF can deteriorate a lot through volatility, it will earn much more than 5%/year. I am very intrigued by the idea of...
  4. Bry

    Could UGAZ go to zero?

    Actually the NG futures look weak, but UGAZ showed some strength. Might've been fooled. UGAZ looked good for awhile but Nat Gas futures looked awful. I am not long UGAZ.
  5. Bry

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    Talk about paying attention: I never wrote that Schwartz had only one losing month. I wrote that the most he ever lost in a month during his tracked record was 3-4%. October '87 was a scratch month, as far as I know.
  6. Bry

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    It is in Schwager's book, Market Wizards, I think.
  7. Bry

    Could UGAZ go to zero?

    UGAZ showing some confirmation right now that it is now in an up trend. SL at 1.27.
  8. Bry

    Could UGAZ go to zero?

    Very fine answers. Thanks, Occam.
  9. Bry

    Pattern Day Trading Rule, how to avoid

    Someone has recommended opening 3 brokerage accounts either with same brokerage or not, and with less than $25k total, one can make 9 day trades per week.
  10. Bry

    Could UGAZ go to zero?

    Tell me exactly why. You sound very opinionated but you didn't give any specifics as to your opinion. ...calculus, stats, freight train, power of law, math knowledge, excel...but no real specifics
  11. Bry

    Pattern Day Trading Rule, how to avoid

    I am in California, friend. Hard enough for me to get up early enough to be ready for the 6:30 market open, not gonna get up for the DAX, thank you very much!
  12. Bry

    Could UGAZ go to zero?

    I trade the leveraged ETFs all the time. You have to know what you are doing, and you must not hold these positions for very long due to deterioration. They are great for day trades and okay for a few days. I wish I had made this trade, but if someone had bought the first 15-minute candle on...
  13. Bry

    Pattern Day Trading Rule, how to avoid

    I too am learning the YM.
  14. Bry

    Could UGAZ go to zero?

    How does shorting something that is going towards 0 make it dangerous? Please explain your logic. Also, I totally agree leveraged ETFs can be dangerous; I think borrowing them costs about 5% annually from IB. They can move 5% in a couple of hours!
  15. Bry

    Pattern Day Trading Rule, how to avoid

    1. some leveraged ETFs can be hedged pretty easily to hold overnight without much risk and without day trading to get out, for instance, say you buy $3000 worth of DWTI and it starts to go against you near the close and you want to liquidate but cannot make a day trade, just buy $3000 worth of...
  16. Bry

    Could UGAZ go to zero?

    You can short the leveraged ETFs too. Someone who shorted UGAZ four or so months ago would be up 85% right now (minus some fees): from $10 to $1.50. So it does not have to be a losing game. You can always short the leveraged ETF pairs too. IB offers them as shorts all the time. A few brave...
  17. Bry

    Could UGAZ go to zero?

    It is not just the contango that makes the prices crazy. Leveraged 2X and 3X ETF prices are recalibrated daily, so there is a little value lost each day that isn't lost in the underlying (maybe the owners are skimming a little cream off each day for themselves). And yes, reverse splits too...
  18. Bry

    Still puzzled about this trade

    Maybe the market does not expect the trade to ever be profitable. That is to say, the underlying has not gone down enough, or is not expected to go down enough, to make the debit spread profitable. Why don't you see if selling this same spread would be making money now, or not, according to the...
  19. Bry

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    If someone thinks something is impossible, it is definitely impossible for that someone.
  20. Bry

    Is it possible to make >=20% expected geometric mean returns per year with options? Why?

    Marty Schwartz has/had a proven and verifiable track record of growing at 20% per MONTH. This is a track record for years, and the most he ever lost in a month was 3-4%. He lost 20% in the crash of '87, and made it all back before the end of that same month! He didn't compound long term. He...
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