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You "think" you are going to "try" to "scale in"? There's a load of useless mumbo jumbo if I ever saw one. There is no think or try, you can either sell or buy. See, I can do this too.

By the way, the http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BFCIUS:IND financial conditions index is almost at new post 2007 highs. Not an insignificant datapoint considering it does give a decent indication of stress on the financial system in the US. It's clear that the US financial...

Does anybody have experience with that sentiment thing at www.finviz.com? I guess it could be good as a contrarian indicator? It's been totally bearish for the past week or so almost all day every day.

Because every time the trendmonkeys decide to take on the financials I need to sell with them? Please... It's a comment on the current state of the markets, not about the future direction of it which is, as you seem not to realize, generally unpredictable. Europe still has the best...

I have been long, which is something I haven't stopped doing, cautious or otherwise. I've not been bearish on the markets since the middle of june or something, maybe even a bit earlier. "Cautious" just means that if the market doesn't do what I want to see it do I am preparing to bail on my...

No idiot, do you read? I said I became cautious yesterday and went back to not very cautious after the dip yesterday and I became uberbullish this (European) morning. Whatever. Why don't you go ahead and short this market and see what happens.

Thank you for proving my point.

Well, looks like a market where lots of guys are in denial about the fundamentals, don't want to cover and best of all try to keep picking tops. I don't blame them really, the news has been horrible for so long that you should expect to note a whole lot of faders. I want to see bear...

Oh my! :)

Thanks for the link - only wish the audio and charts were clearer. Lend to private sector - they're most likely to take money and invest overseas where there is growth. We need the government to direct funds (from increased revenue) to infrastucture, reserach and education - will never happen...

You mean somebody bought 7k contracts and nobody sold them to him? Interesting.... :confused:

nuhuh. This is forming a head and AWESOME. You'll see. We need bear capitulation before this can go down and even then it'll probably sort of range with an upward bias until it does a real sort of correction. New overnight high (again). Do you know if it means anything if the S&P500 futures...

Is it bullish when there is a sell imbalance and ES closes higher and rallies after the close a bit?

The neat thing about Shiller P/E is that you don't have to predict earnings to have a clue about value. I don't think the S&P500 is lagging earnings significantly. By the way, how does Europe look according to your way of looking at it? My point still remains (and which metric is important)...

Define your valuation metric then. Shiller P/E, Forward P/E? What? P/B?

They're only cheap if you had some kind of guarantee that earnings will come out as expected. I don't think I agree entirely that the markets are "cheap" right now. At best they are reasonably priced. The reason I am still somewhat bullish is because of all the bear tears this rally is...

I wasn't bearish, depending on how you defined it. I was a bit worried about the lack of upside potential. Right now we're seeing some pretty phenomenal down pressure on the markets given the situation we're in, in Europe. Banks are getting hit very hard across the board. I basically wanted to...

This is what is supposed to have caused this overnight spike up?

If a fund's risk models allow it I think it's a great trade. Very high returns compared to the risk that Greece is going to default. Even if that risk is very high the returns are still good.

In that case wouldn't it be better to be short the dollar against the Asian currencies? I'd be long Euro or neutral but certainly not short. The EU does not enjoy the kind of excessive monetary stimulus that the UK and the US do and there is really very little risk of massive currency...