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Well, obviously the same information is available to all of us and I do not disagree that what you say is possible. I think you are putting the correction too far into the future, however since nobody knows when and currently the trend is up, I am not betting the farm that we will crash. I am...

The S&P P/E is about 22, which is well above the historical median and average. A P/E above average would suggest above-average growth potentential/chances. I don't see this so brightly, mainly because the deleveraging cycle hasn't completed, imo. I am shorting here and there, but I'm not...

I haven't even been posting here for the past 12 months, and I wasn't bearish until about a month ago. Also I mainly trade European equity indices, so even if I had been bearish on them for the past 12 months straight I would have come out ahead for the most part (all except the Xetra Dax).

imo it's quite likely that they're simply hedging their portfolios because they know equities are very likely to be overvalued. There are probably none or very few commercial parties who are ever net short the market. This game is reserved for speculative operations. At this point they're...

Does nobody here even bother with the COT? http://www.cftc.gov/OCE/WEB/sp500.htm

Man up a bit. Are you even a real bear? We're going to lose at least 20% from this point sometime in the near future (2011) and you're already excited? :P

You think inflation is bad for stocks?

You could limit loss by buying protective call options in the same way that a long investor may buy protective puts. You can sell and hold if you keep the short position at the same weight in your portfolio by covering on the way up. I really don't recommend this strategy. The least...

That's ridiculous. You're proposing that it's fine for a trader to be like a driver without a license. While it is certainly intuitive to drive and one really doesn't need training to move and steer the car, understanding traffic is why the license is a must. The unlicensed driver is like the...

Sell off? If you call this a sell off...

Well I'm not exactly short, either. I disagree with the notion one should not find the underlying reason for the momentum of the market. Considering that, I find the current upwards move to be entirely reasonable and logical, I had not expected a big correction or crash for the past year but in...

There is no tellign where the smart money is, but you can tell where the big money (pension funds, mutual funds) is at. They're currently very hedged with short positions on futures. It's unlikely they are the ones buying up this market, and they won't be buying the dips when it tanks this...

We must be near the top. When the last bear is out of the door.... I'm still bearish (although as I mentioned in another thread I am long anyway because my long-term bearishness should not mean I cannot make any money ;)

Yes dear. To stay on-topic my view on the markets is that they will range from this point within the action of the last week and a half with possible although unlikely 2-3% more upside.

I never said it was intended :) We'll never know for sure.

Indeed thanks for explaining the pun.

Oh my god. This guy is positively nuts. "This market has barely budged for the past month!". What the F.

What's risky is a long entry when, as poster above me said, sentiment is very high. You might catch a few % but if you target more than that it is best to wait for a dip and then buy on the way back up. I'm sure every long/short fund or investor is schizophrenic. I am long certain stocks...

Thank you, I think you cured me. However I still think one is more likely to profit going contrarian to little-guy sentiment, as they, as a group, do not win if only for the reason the rest, as a group, must be taking the other side of their trades and the other side has near infinite cash...

The countries you mention are barely 20% of the world's GDP, if not less in real terms. Unless they grow at impossible rates it's just a ruse. The impact of demand from these countries could not be enough to provide real growth if things do not improve in the western world more quickly...