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Ha, I did not know that! I thought it was just S/N and if S is zero, the whole thing is zero.

They will let the currency collapse, EM CB banks always do. Also, along the usual EM lines, they will probably rescue some companies (banks, other systemic industries as well as friends of the principal) and let the rest default. Nothing to see unless you have access to their local market (there...

The CDS does not seem to be pricing that in (5 year is still under 500 and, if anything, is tighter from the start of the festivities). PS. All the nasty sh*t that their CB did to protect the lira seems to have worked, at least temporarily.

"Sad" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-05/trump-says-fed-should-cut-rates-and-stop-shrinking-balance-sheet

The main problem is that Fed appointees are long-term, similar to the Supreme Court. I sure hope the Senate does not approve, but that would open the door to all sorts of issues. Fed was truly the last bastion of technocracy and if it changes we are all fucked.

Well, someone was buying from the end of December until now 'cause the market is up. If the smart money indicator is right (I have my doubts) it muse have been the dumb money.

As an aside, there are a lot of things happening around the Fed that are very worrisome. My primary concern is the attack on the independence of the Fed by the current administration. First, jawboning, now nomination of various stooges. Granted, this was bound to happen from the moment the Fed...

We are not here to help each other. This forum is mostly low value banter, bragging and posturing, with some rare exceptions. I am here because of boredom and partially because of a social vacuum outside of work. Whenever I need a second opinion I usually reach out to people I trust, like my...

I think, personally, that short rate expectations get fuzzy past 2 years or so and most of the curve is shaped by the risk preferences. This inversion is very typical in that the Fed raised the short term rate, but the long-term rates stayed the same. So I personally think it matters, but who...

"Well, in summer there’s fishing and shagging. And in winter the fishing is bad."

I think we might be using different definitions of "term premium", you are probably thinking about some output of a term structure model. My view is relatively simple. Imagine that you have two riskless curves, one has a 0.1% overnight rate and the other has a 7% one. For the former, it's...

Well, in fairness, it certainly could happen here as well. Some people think that Japan is a bit ahead of the curve as the modern economies go (in terms of declining fertility rates, preference for low inflation etc), but you can see similar symptoms in the developed Europe and some glimpses of...

It's very unlikely that the whole market cap has been supported by insiders since the very beginning. There are obvious pockets of manipulation on one hand, there are some real deals on the other hand. FWIW, the most recent news about fake volume has little to do with price manipulation but...

Smart money has a much shorter time horizon. From his perspective, adding a few hundred dollars to the market every month and holding for 30 years, the entry price does not make that big of a difference. They are spot on. A 28 year old has plenty of time to compound out of pretty much any crash...

He should do both. In fact, an early start on retirement savings is probably worth more than a salary bump.

One more consideration - 401k is exempt in a bankruptcy.

Are you sure about that? I kept several 401k from my previous employers and only recently rolled them all into an IRA. I paid no additional fees beyond the management fee for the fund. Last I checked, the S&P 500 vehicle in my 401k had equal fees to SPYs. Tax advantage is very important in many...

SPY options are even smaller, if that matters. Personally, I think @Sig is right and the OP should do some reading before he takes the plunge.

What exactly is going to be problematic? Also, why would you forego an ability to contribute pre-tax? If you are contributing whatever the max is, that's 4-5 grand of additional investment.