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Lol, what? Where did you get 50%? 250 bps of yield change * 8ish duration ~= 20% change in price

Dude, he is right. Asset-weighted performance of all investors, both positive and negative, will equal the overall performance of the market. So once you subtract the total market performance (i.e. external value coming into the system), you do get a true zero sum game.

Mkay, so you disagree with my definition? Here is a quote from Wikipedia: i.e. 0 = sum<i=1 to N> { w_i * delta_i } where sum of w_i is 1 and delta is the utility or gains/losses of the participants. In other words (and now I quote from myself): You can not deduce a zero sum nature game (or...

It never really was a secret either. Kinda useless bit of information (there are arranged trades, so there is no price impact) unless you want to filter them out for some volume calculations.

They only do so because of the interaction with the asset market - i.e. without an ability to collapse the arbitrage relationship, the two could be wildly disconnected. Nope. An asset either already produces income or is expected to do so in the future. So when you are buying an asset, you are...

The asset markets is not a zero-sum by construction, as it (eventually) allows for risk transfer between interested parties (buyer wants a higher return, so he buys an asset, seller wants to reduce his risk so he sells). The only true zero-sum markets are derivatives, but even there the players...

That's not really true. A short-term trader is a provider of liquidity for the long-term investors (or for other, longer-term traders), so it becomes a waterfall-like structure were every step is exposed to the overall return of the market, but to a lesser degree. That's only true because of...

is there such a thing yet?

OMO - open market operations SOMA - system open market account PS. Sorry, I should have clarified right away.

You are contradicting yourself, dude :) Oh, a travesty :D

everyone here is an elite trader or at least behaves like one :P Most of the market makers are what you call HFT and most of the transactions involve a market maker at least on one side (except for dark pools and similar venues). The market makers are simply short-term liquidity providers, so...

It does not work this way. At least, if you have a certain amount of regulatory capital that you have to hold in riskless bonds, you are going to be buying more bonds on regular basis (you know, coupons and maturities add up :D). As an aside, there is a general shortage of safe assets in the...

Just retirement investments are worth about 25 trillion so somebody out there is investing. Maybe it's just you who missed the boat?

He wants to retire, I guess.

Erm, that's self-contradictory. If the banks are required to hold more treasuries, demand for treasuries should be higher, not lower. Hmm. That's not read I got from it, but it would be interesting to understand your reasoning a bit more.

Here is a simple toy model, assuming square root for market impact: total flows = 227 - 87 = 140 daily flows = 140/60 (60 days in first quarter) = 2.33 total market adv ~= 250 billion //aggressive assumption here - higher ADV -> lower impact approximate daily vol = 1% total impact = 60 * 1% *...

:vomit:

This is kinda priceless: "To me, leaving so many children in poverty and not educating them well ... is economically stupid." Removing existing legislature is still "solving by legislation" and it's a version of a "green deal" that might actually work. He proposes a lot of good ideas, such as...

A lot of IPO buys have non-hypothecation clauses in place with their providers so the price does not get dumped early on. Do you mean sell? If you are the buyer of the option, nobody can assign anything but you. Market is likely to be very wide, so there will be a lot of things priced into...

Well, the problem with stuff like FRA/OIS or FF/SOFR is that when it does breakdown, it means that something went bump. I'll write a bit more detailed explanation later.