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Sadly, it's more likely that it goes to 0.5% like in Japan, that's where the risk is.

Yeah, that's continuously compounded rate of about 3%. Not bad indeed, but certainly not a beacon of stability, all things considered (e.g. buying US treasuries would have returned more).

SOFR is really a mix of 3 different rates - tri-party (where BoNY is involved as a custodian), bi-party (delivery versus payment as facilitated by DTCC) and finally central counterparty model (facilitated by the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation which is also part of the DTCC). So you get a...

Yeah, I am involved with these, though liquidity is still luke-warm. As for SOFR/FFER spread - SOFR is a mix of several different overnight repos, including lower (for several reasons) credit quality ones.

Just remembered what I wanted to add here. One of the key issues with MMT is that it fails to model that inflation levels are largely driven by inflation expectations and monetary credibility. Credibility is a tricky thing, you are credible for a while; then one day you fuck up and it's gone...

I suspect that this is pure selection bias, to be fair. Most accounts that have equities or ETFs are buy and hold, while most options accounts are held by active traders. If they have corrected for number of trades per month, I am sure the results would be similar.

Well, with all these bad news, are you short? :P

is your thinking that hard brexit is already fully priced into the currency while an upside surprise would give a nice bump or you think it's symmetrical and you have a hard stop at some level? edit: imho, the sterling has not really had another massive decline since the early 2017 when the...

Hmm. My intuition is that it's very binary - either a hard Brexit or a second referendum and no Brexit at all.

Well, based on the summary the Mueller Report is bullish, no? Or is that the buy the rumor, sell the news type of reasoning? Well, we are pricing a cut in December at the moment - I'd say the interesting trade is to short FF futures that are pricing 5-10% probability of the cut in the next few...

@destriero - thanks! I was being lazy indeed. So what do we think of the inverted yield curve? My sense is that combined with the lousy numbers coming out of Europe as well as locally there are reasons to think that it might be a proper sign. The real question is - short now or wait for the...

So your intuition is that we shall see a melt-up before we get on with a melt-down? In some ways, that's sensible given how underinvested the institutionals are at these levels

well, tomorrow is a day, i am thinking longer horizon - let's say to the end of year?

wanna create a separate one? i kinda wish we had a smart macro thread, but these things alway tend to get spammed by politics, TA-babble or just ET egomaniacs.

which leg do you think will get crushed? Personally, I'd venture that the long gold trade is not where it's at, but I am kinda agreeing that equities might be a sell here.

It's not even down to the lows of 2016, though. I think if you really want a sob story, you want to look at the stuff coming out of developed Europe and the UK (especially combined with the likely hard Brexit).

Dumb money is not always wrong, you know. In any case, who do you think was buying equities in the last few months?

The Fed does not want to raise any alarms in the asset markets, but the economic numbers paint a mixed picture. If anything, the rates market (Fed Funds futures, specifically) are predicting a rate cut in the near future. It's unclear what their tools are at this stage of the game. They can't...

Prior to the next recession, gold was very expensive, as the inflation fears were rampant (remember the uber-bullish oil forecasts?). You would still have done better from peak to through than you did if you held S&P but then again, you would have missed the rally too. Anyway, my point is that...

It's simple. Take the current futures strip, the first one is ES1, second one is ED2 etc. Once the current first futures expires, the second futures will become the first one, third futures become second etc.