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Wow. In silver, it was almost new. The gut responded more to the level of senitment around the different commodity boards I follow. Too much bullishness. Some parts of Market Theory require a certain amount of money to be on the wrong side of a move. They were talking about $20 as if...

Grob, Your way of making the analogy gets easier by applying the market to poker. Specifically, heads up no limit holdem. Hole card represent side specific info. Board cards represent info for both sides. From there, the game must be stretched into the abstract. Both games, actually...

"However, I will say this: If you lose your perspective [which you seem to be doing] and begin assuming that it is somehow "beyond-current-scientific-understanding" that seperates the great from the average, you better get to the average stage first, say like some of the people on this site that...

Cayce had some pretty out there ideas. I'm not going to suggest which ones were right or wrong, except for one. The predictions and diagnosing we already have a good idea about. There is one particular idea he had that correlates with some of the stuff I've been looking into in physics...

"In your poker analogy, what corrersponds to what?" Talking about those times a guy gets a good feel of the strength of another guy's hand, sometimes even the exact cards. A lot of guys just guess and get it right occassionally. But the really good players seem to hit it a lot more often...

Entries are optional. Exits aren't. They aren't one and the same and shouldn't always be treated as such. Sometimes is probably okay, but not always. The criteria for entry can be as specific as one wants. But one will need to be much nimbler on the exit. If one waits for the entry...

Lol. Yeah, some of his predictions are flat out wrong. I'm more leaning towards how he diagnosed illness, tho. There he wasn't wrong very often (if ever?). If one treats Market as a whole organism, perhaps a universe unto itself thru which traders interact, I wonder if it couldn't be...

How much have we left on the table? Wow, I never thought about it like that. I walk away from a poker table after a winning session without a care for all the money still on the table. My goal is to have winning sessions and play well. If I tried to get all the money, I'd probably lose a...

"Very interesting indeed. Could you please elaborate more on the process that you used to develop such instinct." Research Edgar Cayce. He beleived everyone could learn how to do this. I'm not so sure. But he was a lot better at it, so maybe he gets benefit of doubt. I came to it thru...

Cohen is said to be able to figure out which particular item a market will decide is important. He gets his information first now. He didn't always. Just knowing what the market will focus on next is pretty decisive. Last week, cnbc had a show on one of the biggest bond traders. The guy...

Btw, For those who favor practical application over theory and such, I've been trading a $25k account since the middle of last Dec 05. 9 months, quite a few tops and bottoms in Indices, Silver, Copper, and Oil. Currently, account is over $600k. Haven't bothered to measure the...

Always, somebody tries this: "so lets put your intuition to the test. Tomorrow, Will the US stock market close lower or higher than todays close." First, it doesn't work that way. I choose neither market or time. It happens when it happens. Second, I'm not out to prove anything...

It's always most interesting to find out what it will be and in what market. Never know until it happens. In oil, the top was a very strong feeling while reading the weekend issue of IBD. Buried back in the commodity blurb, an Australian banker is quoted, "Who is brave enough to be short...

I understand using "read" versus "predict". It does tend to get not quite so much criticism. However, part of what I'm talking about is actually prediction. Today's oil headlines for example. For weeks, I've been talking about "huge new supply" coming into the oil market. For weeks...

I just noted something odd. It can be shown that crowd emotions are most unpredictable on short timeframes and most predictable on the larger timeframes. The belief in "unpredictability" comes, a lot of times, from short timeframe traders, daytraders and such. Longer term traders are...

You guys got it. I tell you, most have no idea what we're talking about. Sometimes they get so into crunching numbers they forget its a people game. Just like in other people games (speficically the ones played for money), there is another level that parrallels, somewhat, the numbers level...

On top of the above, I can actually see the structure of market. A few have likened it to the beginning of "A beautifull mind" when Nash is correlating patterns in the reflections of light thru crystal to patterns in neckties and everything else. Maybe my mind is somewhat the same. Because...

It has taken nearly 10 years and giving up almost everything else to learn this. Doctors and lawyers put in 8+ years of constant study. Paychecks in this game are so much bigger, 10 years ain't to much time to devote to education. Half a lifetime isn't too much time. But, it never was...

"IMO you just cant make some mathematical formula to predict the randomness of millions of people, with a million different reasons for doing what they do." That's said quite often, quite often said without thinking it thru. One does not need to predict every individual, ONLY the net...