Search results

You know, you have a nice big post here criticizing all the points in my post and yet every point you make is off. For instance - "25 billion" !? How can I take the rest of your post seriously? You're off by maybe a factor of 10-100, particularly considering when you add back recent losses...

Yes, I should not have said "all". However, some of the best known and famous ones out there: Henry, Dunn, Abraham, Superfund, etc are in large enough drawdowns to question the legitimacy of the entire trend following industry. People seem fascinated by the almost quasi-religious aspects of the...

Its definitely never worked for stocks, even in a bull market. I can't find any system thats worked consistently on buying new highs and has worked over the low haul. Perhaps for some commodities its worked but with the amount of money going into trend following it doesnt really work for...

Hey surfer, that situation might help the trends, but not necessarily the funds' returns. They push the trend up (as a group), but they all also just top-ticked it! When the natural supply and demand fundamentals of the commodity kick in, the commodity then collapses.

You make a great point - certainly their size has hurt them (although its helped their wallets by increasing their fees). Many of the commodities they attempt to trend follow have been historically illiquid and now have to deal with $50bb worth of trend following funds chasing them up...

The trend followers are really underperforming. I have to admire their stamina because if I suffered through a 60% drawdown like John Henry is in the middle of then i'd probably just admit defeat and return my investors money. Dunn is fighting back from a 50% drawdown. Eckhard bouncing back...

"Trade Like a Hedge Fund" by me. Next in line, of course, is my book that just came out: "SuperCash".

I wrote this for my column in The Financial Times a few weeks ago and it applies to this thread. Please forgive the size of the post: A few days ago I was having breakfast with a friend of mine who runs a successful long/short hedge fund with about $60 million in assets. He seemed...

Thanks! But you didnt' respond to my point that the systems are still consistently working. In the past 2-3 weeks the bankrupcty chapter and QQQ Crash chapter made people money. Not every chapter triggers every week. But taking the systems in there, using them as starting points, and trading...

Creative or not they have still been consistently working. Bankruptcy chapter just worked on NWAC and DAL. Deletions chapter has been great. QQQ Crash chapter just triggered and worked. Etc. Its funny how people knock stuff they clearly haven't tried or looked at. - James Altucher

I'm not sure what "trend" means. There's no evidence that stocks trend in one direction or the other. Stocks tend to mean revert rather than trend. This is why even the trend-following funds leave stocks alone. I don't mean anything quantitative when I say "volatile". Any Nasdaq stock would...

You get more bang for your buck going long the gap down. Gap ups tend to keep going, but not much, and the results are not worth playing. If the market is gapping down, and a volatile stock is gapping down 5% , and was also down the day before, this is usually a good play. In terms of...

I have say, I think Cramer's show is great: - performace is positive and handily beating the indices by about 100 basis points a month or more (buying stocks at open next day and holding until he stops recommending). - I learn from his comments. Here's a guy who has been in the trenches...

I meant, doesn't run a hedge fund at the moment. But heck, i subscribe to his action alerts portfolio so I'm definitely aware of it. I subscribe to that and Markman's Value Investor on the site.

my favorite writers who also invest: - Joel Greenblatt - Jim Cramer (doesn't invest a portfolio now but definitely paid his dues) - David Swenson ("Unconventional Success" is great) The main criticism I even get from potential investors is, "why do you also write?" I sort of feel it...

Eric, thanks! In terms of the volatility of the markets - I think all of the systems in the book are starting points. I think there are hundreds of systems that can branch off of these and perhaps adjust by using paramters for volatility (I think using ATR is a good idea). I also think...

I think the fact that there is a tradable index now makes a big effect on a system like that. People not only buying the underlying stocks but making macro bets on the index.

I'm still very much in the trenches. In fact, two systems from my book triggered last week. Both ended up successful: the QQQ Crash chapter and the bankruptcies chapter. Still very much working fortunately. -James

Friday I wrote an article about Quadriga for realmoney.com: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jamesaltucher/10164582.html

Yes. As an anecdote, one of my favorite hedge funds is Rennaissance Medallion, started by Jim Simons. He was a world famous mathematician who decided he would basically study every relationship in the markets he could find and then trade on the best of them. His fund is amazing: 35%+ / year...