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Coincidentally I stumbeld across something sort of like this in Sturm's "Trading Natural Gas" under "speculative applications for swing swaps" (page 88). It made me think about you liquidating your -Q: it's not all that easy to do every day (think weekends). I guess you need so buy back 3...

I meant July/August, sorry. Are there cash/margin implications of going from spread to outright short August? Are you enheartened or dis-enheartened by the fact that spot has been trading further than usual below prompt month NYMEX almost the whole month? Oh, and can anyone do this...

Just re-iterating: You trade your Q futs for a July(?) swap (swapping June settle for July settle)? then take your July settle cash and buy HH at phys basis and sell into spot to draw down your -Q exposure by making physical delivery? I think I get it, but I'm not completely sure what you're...

So how does that work? You have to take delivery of your +N at Henry, then schedule it to a storage or park& lend, and then schedule it back to HH to settle your -Q? In that case your profit becomes .185 (or whatever you entered at) minus transportation and storage charges. Also you have to...

So if our screens are right the +N/-Q is .184 bid at .185, with a little more size on the ask. Looks like it went down to .164 earlier today. Do you still have this trade on?

Hey, hey! Let's lay off NNT. We all know he's an expert. I actually have one of his business cards: PS: I own/like 3 of his books.

So a person hornwrassled into buying a bucket of "gold" he didn't want should just finish out the transaction even after discovering that the bucket was actually full of shit, just because it might cause others in the market to more closely examine the buckets of "gold" thery were being...

pianoman: I was refering to Credit Default Swaps (CDS's) not Certificates of Deposit (CD's).

I was reading this over on zerohedge: http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/recent-average-cds-auction-recovery.html#disqus_thread The auction they hold to settle up with the CDS holders is for the underlying bonds, isn't it? So if there's a credit event (lets say a bankruptcy) they have an...

Oh, and regarding UNG, just in case anyone hasn't picked up on this: they carry only prompt month gas (or 1.5 months forward, depending on what time of the month it is...). Moves in the curve beyond a month or two have no impact on UNG. So today, if March '10 gas shot up 50% UNG would do...

They roll forward over 4 days. remember the disconnect in USO (UNG's sister fund for oil) a few months ago? They were rolling truly massive volume forward in 1 day. They've since gone with a 4 day roll, and it now doesn't distort the market anymore (the roll forward doesn't anyway...).

to me it just means money is cheaper than it used to be...

Citi can't legally make spurious dollars appear on their Balance Sheet. They need to ask the fed to do it for them (...and I agree that the two are pretty close to the same thing lately). The fed does get audited by one of the big 4, and the findings pubished; on and of balance sheetitems are...

Hey, I just made $20B on my mutual fund swing trade.* * by "made" I mean I looked at the number 20B on my calculator while placing my market sell. My trade profit was about $4k

Very nice. What made you exit a penny early? Seems like things were going your way. again, what a super trade!!! I'm goign to have to look at some of your other trades and take notes... Thanks again for sharing.

I'm not yet optimistic that the court will really stand up for secured creditors. Although I do doubt that the administation will threaten the justices in the manner they did Perella Winebreg, et all (by threatening to slander their reputations with the full force of their office and the pres...

Where do i get my IRA losses back that were due to the banks tanking the market? oh wait, only democratic constituencies get free money these days... never mind.

Thanks for the link. A couple of interesting stats in there; the most interesting for me being ~$3T in deposits in Swiss banks and ~$2T in Cayman Is. banking centers. Also interesting that with 2/3's of the deposits of the swiss banks, Cayman "banks" own 3x as many treasury bonds. This...

but doesn't dark volume also obfuscate price action by taking many of the trades offline? I guess they get reported sometime, but if you take 20% of the action out and report it non-realtime it muddies the water quite a bit, don't you think? Also: Is that their stated purpose, or just...