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I'm only starting to use this ACD methodology now, so take it with a grain of salt. (I've only been doing automatic long-term trend trading for a prolonged time) I think the simplest concept is to look for stuff that is confirming a numberline, but it doesn't look like it has moved yet on the...

5 day rolling NL: DX 6 ZB 6 D6 4 GF 3 ZS 1 NG 1 S6 1 ZC 0 KC 0 ES -1 ZW -1 CC -2 LE -3 M6 -3 CL -3 SI -3 E6 -4 J6 -4 OJ -5 CT -5 A6 -6 B6 -6 GC -6 HG -6 N6 -7 SB -8

Long-term breakout? The short side breakouts don't work particularly well in commodities. Here's my numberline values for this month (reset at the beginning of each month). Copper is the least interesting market out of all that I'm following: DX 10 ZB 6 D6 6 M6 5 ZS 3 ES 2 NG...

From a fundamental perspective, if above average GDP growth is perceived, the following happens: LONG equities due to expected growing earnings LONG crude oil due to growing demand LONG copper due to growing demand SHORT bonds due to expected rise in interest rates SHORT dollar index due to...

I have a rookie question about some terms, heavily mentioned in this thread earlier. What does "risk assets" mean, what is "risk on"/"risk off" and "flight to quality"? From what I gathered by reading the thread (and googling some other sources) risk on basically means: LONG equities (e.g. ES)...

In the documentary "Bulls and Bears" he is shown trading from his house in Port Douglas. He also claims at one time that he is trading from home 95% of the time and hates to come down to the pits in Sydney.

Remember John "Rambo" Moulton from the old Bulls and Bears documentary? He gave an interview recently, check it out: What caught my attention is how similar some of his concepts are to those preached by Maverick74. Namely: trading spreads, looking at relative value, observation and intuition...

Yes, I was thinking about the gap scenario but disregarded its influence to the NL as most markets are open 24/5 these days. Weekend gaps - yes. But do they really significantly affect the NL since their frequency is only 1/5 and the gaps are not always that large. That's why I was wondering if...

I guess that implies wide A values. Are you doing this to skew reward to risk ratio to your advantage? How do you handle those cases where the market doesn't pull back and you miss the move? On another topic, reading the thread I noticed many posts where you say the number line may go up while...

I see, that makes sense if you're managing your position intraday. The option stuff is way out of the league for a newbie like me. How would you recommend one to start for someone who would like to emulate your style? Is the following a valid strategy from your point of view: If I want to go...

May I ask you why are you staring at the screens in real time all day long then if your time frame is long term and you could review the same price action at EOD?

I'm at page 480 at the moment and have seen a few posts in which Maverick74 says he is watching the markets for 60 hours a week. Many other posts indicate short-term trading: multiple posts per day about short term price movements happening during the day. I'm wondering though if a similar...

I knew it! I knew ACD is a religious sect!

By the way, the quote is from 2011. Not sure if anything has changed since then. I'm only at page 320 out of 1400.

I'm going through the thread from its beginning and taking notes. I think this quote should answer your question:

Determining the number for the day requires intraday data. Unfortunately I only have EOD data for the futures that go back to the 80s and even 60s for some products. I have access to the short time frames for Forex pairs though, I could give it a shot there.

Returns depend on risk per trade. My risk per trade is 2%, CAGR 20% and max drawdown 22%. That makes for MAR of 0.9. Win rate is 40%, but the result distribution is very fat tailed. If I recall correctly 20% of the profits come from top 5% of the winning trades and 50% of the profits come from...

I'm a long-term trend follower. I trade a simple mechanical trend trading system that I have developed and fully automated. It is diversified across 25 markets (commodities, bonds, currencies, indexes). It requires action only once a day (to recalculate risk, modify orders and adjust stop...

I think NL doesn't take into consideration B and D points. I think all of it can be simplified into 3 basic conditions: 1) if C was made and market settled above/below OR in the same direction as C, it's +/-4 2) if (no C but) A was made and market settled above/below OR in the same direction as...

If going strictly by the book, it's +4.