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Did you lose 80% in a single trade on your live account?

I do not find volume useful. If you look at long term trends, what does it matter how much volume there was on any particular day? The only useful thing about it is to determine if there is enough liquidity for your size (provided you have such a problem to begin with). Also the volume data can...

Intraday trend following implies that you can successfully guess when the corrections of the main long term trend will happen. I doubt anyone can.

The events you mentioned are random and unpredictable. No amount of fundamental analysis could have predicted them. Your question is a very good argument against the fundamental analysis. Of course it doesn't make an argument for the technical analysis - most of it is mumbo jumbo akin to...

The example numbers I provided are for a long term scenario.

It's a long term game. A fund giving 15% CAGR with 30% max drawdown beats the S&P 500 with its 8% CAGR and 60% max drawdown.

Trade long term, keep the day job. There is no reason to day trade.

This question is meaningless without the context. But if you want something useful, you can easily find the answer to your question by backtesting your system with and without the crossover and comparing the results.

That's all fine in theory. In reality you don't know the true odds of winning and the ratio of average win/loss. Both are needed to calculate Kelly criterion. You are assuming that these values are fixed and will remain so in the future. Your assumptions are based on the backtest results and...

Don't paper trade. It's a waste of time. In my opinion, a better approach is to start with real money, but risk very little per trade at the beginning. Get used to taking risks. Gradually increase the risk level, getting used to it over the course of months, until you reach the risk level that...

That's not true. You may lose much more than that if you hit a larger drawdown than your historical backtests show. The quote you provide is about keeping your risk at the same proportion to your equity (that's constant % risk per trade, e.g. 1% per trade). In a drawdown your position size would...

That's beside the main point. It's the CAGR to max drawdown ratio that matters, not CAGR or max DD in isolation. It's also the bias of hindsight. Had you built a model right after 2008, aiming to sustain 40-50% max drawdown, you would have suffered a very rude awakening a few years down the...

Yes, I saw his recent updates to the FAQ (most recent March 19). It seems to me he is focusing on selling his trading tribe workshops for $3500 a pop these days. The CAGR to drawdown ratio since 2011 is abysmal for trend following systems. You can do tests and easily find out that if you traded...

I use 02:00 AM CT as opening time for currencies and 16:00 CT as closing. This would approximate the London open. To me London opening makes the most sense because you can clearly see the trading volume picking up at that time.

There is a time stop and the hard stop. Hard stop should not be delayed by time as it defines your max risk per trade. You want your max loss to be predictable and max win undefined.

Nat gas o_O My system has been riding nat gas long since October 1st, meanwhile the numberlines for nat gas are pointing nowhere :wtf:

This post is talking about confirmation of A after it failed initially. That's a different scenario.

Hello guys, I'd like to know your opinions on re-entries: Imagine the following scenario: an intraday A up is confirmed. You enter a long trade. Then after a while the market is pulled back towards the opening range and you exit with a small loss due to time stop. Then, later in the day, the...

The farm near Bastrop, TX is just one of his properties. You don't need google to find its address as Ed has posted about it on his site a few times. Perhaps you've heard of white pages? His current main address is in Carolina, Puerto Rico. Also, there is no data indicating the sale of his $4...

I think he lives in Puerto Rico now. What's this bankruptcy thing you're talking about?