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  1. I

    CL Redux

    yup good observation , if we go by UP leg 104 near BARS shown in that chart , the down leg punch needs at one more day to punch thru 104 which seems inline with current CL price action .
  2. I

    CL Redux

    that CL punch to 105.20 seems ALGOs work to trap bulls to next LEG down to 104.20 if SPY holds this -0.5% DOWN line for next two hours .. let us see
  3. I

    CL Redux

    Not quite there at FIB , well I took this 5.45
  4. I

    CL Redux

    correction -- Limit Buy 105.18
  5. I

    CL Redux

    seems headed to FIB Ret (.382 level ) 105.18 , SS 105.75 , Limit Buy 108.18
  6. I

    CL Redux

    out 104.90
  7. I

    CL Redux

    Long 105.04
  8. I

    CL Redux

    All Refinaries take input Crude from multiple sources . Pipes from Canada, Oil from ships ( Middle east oil) , Cushing pipe lines (multiple pipe lines ), Cushing OIl sent by Rails etc. It is complex equation ..
  9. I

    CL Redux

    Platts expect this week Inventory Report ( tomorrow EIA report ) as: a) Crude-oil stocks to have fallen by -2.6 MM , b) gasoline +0.8 MM ( build) , b) distillate +1.9 MM (build) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-log-minor-gain-ahead-of-supply-data-2013-07-23?dist=lcountdown
  10. I

    CL Redux

    Gasoline Futures (RBOB) seems topped two days ago, now Down price of Gasoline is Diverting with Crude OIL $108 price . ( Regression channel show in 100 days with 2 Standard deviations, hard to keep prices above 100 day 2 STD for any instrument ) https://www.tradingview.com/e/xcIfqsj2/#
  11. I

    CL Redux

    IF the DOE report is some what similar to released API , overall it looks Bearish for Crude prices ( just by this Inventory factor itself ) Crude/Gasoline/Distillates : -2.6 / + 2.6 / +3.8 ==> Net +3.8 MM Barrels <b>1/ The API report shows that US Crude stockpiles shrank 2.6...
  12. I

    CL Redux

    By Observing the charts at URL given below , This COT takes Weeks to Month to give any Price action based on COT numbers, we short term traders should NOT read too much into this report.
  13. I

    CL Redux

    <b>COT (Commitment Of Traders) reading Crude oil at 100 , Gold at 0 </b> The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks...
  14. I

    CL Redux

    Interesting WTI monlty Roll calculation I got on internet recently .... The front WTI backwardation if sustained and rolled will provide close to 17 $/bbl of positive roll returns for crude oil indices (ETFs etc..) over a year. With free money chasing any yield, a 16% annual roll return in...
  15. I

    CL Redux

    This article shows the complexities involved in estimating physical supply vs. demand ( in short time spans ) in Crude , Gasoline at different US locations ( PADD1 etc.. ) As Big speculators and Hedges get information from various resources ( Refinaries , PADD 1 etc.. ) , we see these big...
  16. I

    CL Redux

    FIB Retracement from day LOW to HIGH at 61.8% level shows $106.64 , seems we are headed there
  17. I

    CL Redux

    good to know you find these articles useful . There are on various sites, when I see good articles I post here for the benefit of community . As you can see the URL link on each article these are from various sites. <b>Message to community: please feel free to comment/contradict on my...
  18. I

    CL Redux

    this big Backwardation in front months reflects the following. a) mainly NEW pipelines that became operational from Cushing to OIL Refineries . b) new Raill road Network established to take out Cushing Crude to Refineries c) this historic HIGH inventories ( we had this same HIGH...
  19. I

    CL Redux

    Interesting Video found on stockTwits , predicting Crude OIL Seasonal Down Trend from MAY 1 - May 31 ( whole month of MAY ) many years ( basing on seasonal + COT reading ) . One reason it did not work MAY month crude Drop THIS YEAR seems , Crude was already down whole APRIL month THIS...
  20. I

    CL Redux

    <b>How we got into this CRUDE $106? good article explaining the Perfect STROM of storm of temporary factors including - seasonal, ( seasonal PEAK of year around INDEPENDENCE DAY ) - environmental and (pipeLine Shutdowns ) political issues (Egypt Unrest ) </b> above 3 Bullish...
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