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You didn't give enough info as I mentioned in my post. You're still using statistics to predict the outcome which is why you open your positions. To use an example like yours of more losses than wins, if you were going to roll a die 60 times and if you roll a 5 I get paid +10 and if you...

If you do not believe price is going to go in your favor over time you should not take the trade. So the prediction for each trade is that it probably won't go in your favor but if it does it will make up for the last 4 losing trades. You can make that prediction based on the statistical...

What? Yes they are. You are predicting price will do a specific thing and that's why you chose to go long or short. No. Yes. Good post. Here's a flowchart that may help people understand it:

Prediction is possible because of statistics. Otherwise it's just guessing. You should never enter a position without a specific expectation. That's the same as random entry. I agree. And you also must take every trade the system gives you because you never know which one is going to...

That's what prediction means. If you know that 70% of the time a certain situation will result in price going up 5 points, then when you see that situation in the future you can predict that price will go up 5 points. Without that statistical knowledge they would just be randomly trading...

How did I miss this thread?! I find it unbelievable that some people (strongly) oppose the idea that directional trading requires predicting. These same people are the ones who say "I don't predict, I react," or "I don't predict, I trade based on statistical analysis." If you have...

Any particular posts or threads in general?

Look at this chart! Silver reversed exactly at the 0.764 Fibonacci level. It's not one of the main Fibonacci levels, though.

Whoa, check out what I just noticed on that chart I posted above.

Not much excitement recently. Here's a weekly chart of silver with some previous S and R lines drawn in. No idea if any of them will become valid again in the future. The ET members who know the difference between an important level and one that should be ignored have not been kind enough...

Do you think if any marijuana stocks go up it's going to be one of these penny stocks or some new company who comes in as a big player out of nowhere once there is some new development with pot?

When you say "price that can't retrace at least 50% of the immediately preceding rally or decline shows weakness, or strength, depending on the direction," do you mean absolute weakness (eg. price is falling) or do you mean weakness relative to the direction of the rally? In other words, if...

That's admirable, since you are right, most of them are useless. Agreed 100%. Looking forward to seeing how you present a method for identifying a trend in real time.

Seems like you took offence to my comment. I was just asking because this was the journal thread but it looked like you were posting some strategy stuff. "Posting potential trades in advance" is close enough to real time calls. And to be clear, I said the idea that Fibonaccis have any...

Are you going to be posting calls in real time? I'm very interested in this thread.

We will see! Can I ask what your reason is for why you don't see it going much lower?

I would laugh if it turned out that game was using random numbers to draw the chart. It does seem to have upward bias, though.

Cool game, but doesn't allow adding to open positions or scaling out :(

Does anyone know if that game just uses a random number generator?

How do you know how long to let your winners run for? How do you know how early to cut your losers? Was entry random?