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There's definitive requirement for a book titled 'How To Realize That You're Wrong'.

Glad I'm not in that trade any longer.

Backtesting is still an important part to establish likelihood of an event occurring, what is an average range expansion, average stop requirement. Of course this can all be a part of PRM, if not than PRM is too basic and most likely will not generate positive ongoing results. Forward testing...

Expansion cycle is near.

To each his own & it's all subjective anyway, there are trends within trends within trends, how you make trade decisions is a very personal thing. I normally follow major trends, but I will never miss out on a good counter trend opportunity :)

Just to make it official, my 'big short' position was closed at a loss.

Let's consider that unlikeliness being the opposite, hypothetically, if that was to happen, then wouldn't this increase the ratio of winners? I sorta agree with your notion, but also agree with Pekelo. Saying that, if folks were to only buy (forget shorting) & not use leverage and position...

I have a question, which Buy1Sell2 ignored earlier in another thread, if all 95% of losing traders were to always stick to their money management plan and at the same time reduce greatly leverage being used would the overall ratio of winning vs losing traders increase or decrease?

Brilliant!

I think trading is as close to a game as one can get, as in a typical game you need a plan and a strategy, your emotional reaction is dependant on whether you're winning or losing, it's also based on chance (even if to a degree, is your next trade going to be a win or a loss? Is this month's...

No way of knowing this. Of course if US interest rates keep rising and UK staying put, then you could be right. I just trade technicals.

I looking at the weekly, treble bottom kinda scenario.

Technicals.

Long GBPUSD, position trade.

Buy double bottoms at the low and sell DTs resistance at the high, payout at x3 risk, risk stops 1/3 of payout in % above entry. Some you lose, some you win.

I am still here & short.

If you could call tops and bottoms with pristine accuracy and able to ride the trade for a multiple of your risk, then lack of consistency is not an issue. 5% win because they know how to manage risk, 95% don't, pair this with high leverage and that's a recipe for disaster (wiped accounts).

MrB, interesting transition from position trader to scalper.

Double butt? Possible.