Recent content by valleyvintner

How truly said! And even if you meet all those criteria you can still get beaten to a pulp!

Good advice! provided that you're prepared to modify both stop and profit objective as conditions develop. The addage, "Let your winners run" is easier to say than to do.

The forecast of a top in the S&P somewhere in the 1150 to 1170 range seems reasonable to me. But I don't yet see strong evidence for it. If the $SPX were to take out the Dec. 13 low of 1115.19 and make a lower low, that would be evidence that it had put in an important top.

We have sensible people in Canada too, who can see that either a Republican or a Democrat administration would need similar foreign policies. I don't believe an anti-war campaign will win the White House for anyone. But returning to the topic, Kerry seems a more widely palatable candidate than...

The whizbang Fibonacci people are saying the S&P will top in the low 1250s. If you intend to play an 1150 top you may need all of your risk management skills and more. :)

The 78.6% retracement of Wave 1 down in the S&P would approach 1385.

Hmm! confluence. An extended Wave 3 in the first impulse leg of a Wave 2 retracement gets us to 1254 in the S&P. And the 61.8% retracement of Wave 2 also goes to 1253. 154 higher from Friday's high we'll find the answer. :)

QQQ could go to 43+ before correcting. Correction would be to the 31-36 range. All we need to know is when. :)

Should have written 1739 as forecast high for an extended Wave 3 in the NDX. From there the alternation rule would mandate a complex correction to 1435 (38%), or as low as 1339 (62%). Seems to me the lower order counts are subject to endless variations.

A simpler (and equally probable) count has the impulse wave begin at the Oct. 02 low, with Wave 2 correcting from the Dec. 02 high to the Feb 03 low, and Wave 3 now under way with possible tops at 1516 (normal Wave 3 proportion) or 1734 (if Wave 3 extends. Since we're well past 1516 the Wave 3...

It seems to me that the setup wouuld be even better (and it's pretty good as you present it) if there were a higher reaction low on the daily chart prior to a breakout through the white line. Most often the ascending reaction lows demonstrate that upward momentum is truly under way.

Truly said! Trader Vic makes things sound so simple that you miss a lot of it the first, second and third times you read him.

That's right! Thanks for the correction. Times are always changing... :)

I attended one of Peter Steidlmayer's Market Logic seminars back in the 80s. They say he's changed the method somewhat since then but not in any substantial way. He was building his TPO distributions from 30-minute bars. I'm sure he didn't care a hoot whether any particular 1-tick TPO had...

That's a tempting thought and probably worth executing. However since the OEX is also the most liquid options market in sight I'm even more tempted to sell premium into this possible top with a delta neutral strategy. Because short strangles go in slow motion it's not hard to adjust delta to...