Recent content by TraderJim

The combination of using a longer time frame (15 min not 5) and scale ins/outs gave me some degree of control over price and added confidence. Becoming more mechanical with exits checked the greed. Limiting funds in the account to what I actually needed to trade helped me to avoid doing...

I actually do both - My IRAs are comprised of stocks that I hold for 3 to 5 years. But I also trade these in a much more cost-effective account to catch the $0.25 and $0.50 moves that happen during the week. If I'm holding a stock for 3 to 5 years, I look at the outlook for free cash...

If you're not a client of the firm - they won't speak to you.

Today's news on OPEC is that production was cut by 1.5 million barrels - so tomorrow morning, the price of oil is likely (not definite) to rise, while wall street will make their crude oil forecast adjustments and release them afterwards. Stock prices will discount higher earnings estimates...

OK, so here goes (and as a disclaimer, this always works great on paper) First, I threw out the concept of buying a stock for a dividend - how much capital do you want to risk to earn 4% over the course of a year? Here's a chart of FTR - 2 days, 15 minutes: How many trades do you see? What are...

Just to clarify, I've been investing since 1988, I've been "trading" since 2015. And to clarify on my CSX example, I'm waiting to buy when the short eventually covers at the retracement point that the stock originally gapped up from - so I'm aware of the fundamentals, but it's a technical entry...

I started investing in 1988 and taught myself technical analysis (putting prices/volume in a spreadsheet) and didn't know what it was and did OK. I added fundamental analysis in 1989 and did better, and spent the next couple of decades learning extremely rigid fundamental analysis and did...

The simple response would be up 20% from the day before Trump won the election. If corporate tax rates are cut 20%, then company earnings would climb 20% and you would apply the same S&P market multiple to earnings. So the S&P 500 closed at 2139 on Nov 8th. If the everyone's earnings climb by...

One last item is monitoring press releases to see what the drilling companies are doing - here's a snippet from PDS which suggests a recovering market: Kevin Neveu, Precision's President and Chief Executive Officer stated, "Recent actions to stabilize and improve commodity prices appear to be...

When a company hedges their output, it's usually through a cashless collar and that's the price they receive on their production. On the put side - you're correct - they haven't locked in downside protection because they believe the market is heading higher OR the market wasn't liquid enough...

Not seeing anything here tied to a removal of a downside hedge, but in general companies didn't hedge in the $30s, and layered in more hedges as we got to $50... so they could produce more... which creates an overhang... which hurts prices at some point... This particular company is exposed...

The CFTC publishes net long / net short positions from companies, funds and speculators. Individual company disclosures will impart hedges place to ensure their production is economic. I make guesstimates around oil prices, but I follow a handful of companies to gauge industry - here's an...

My guess is that the worst is over. Not sure whether you're trading the futures contracts or E&P companies. By now, the winners and losers (company-wise) have been sorted out by who's credit facilities remained intact during the annual bank reviews. Those who were cut are providing headroom...

Marginal by cost effectiveness, which invariably impacts production. Your chart as of the first 3 months of 2016. If you look at the more recent data, U.S. now at 8.7MM, most of the OPEC names higher with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq profitable between $8 and $25 per barrel. Some U.S...

Oil prices may be going higher, but oil company stocks really aren't. There's a lot of short-covering going on. U.S. is a marginal producer now, somewhat cheaper than our Canadian neighbors, but much higher than OPEC. Electric car displacement of gasoline a residual concern as there are so...