Recent content by traderaaa

As someone who has an extensive family background in Cattle, both ranching and feedlots, I'll weigh in. Grass feeding is not free. The cost of gain may be less on grass but there are still significant costs involved in producing those pounds of meat. We have nearly 60,000 acres of grass...

If the account you are backing is in your name how do you handle the profits and taxes if the ownership of the account isn't split? All the profits show up on your 1099's but you have paid out a portion of that to the trader. Contract labor? or am I missing something.

It is going to be hot and dry, especially in the western c. belt but I don't really have an opinion on corn like I did in June. On the cash side, the feedlot bought a lot of corn in June, and I suspect commercials covered some short positions and are putting those on again.

The spread isn't market neutral it is designed to be a directional bet on what is basically a cattle feeding margin. As far as entry timing-we are off the highs of the spread but if it really is turning, which it may, then the spread will trend lower for a long time. When FC is...

here is what I use I find it much easier, it is from Ann Barnhardt. The bpcog is break profit cost of gain, I use .55 or .65 to cover all costs of one pound of gain. Just input your prices and the return per head comes out below. Ok, it didn't attach. I will try this again. I just...

Structuring a FC/LC spread with options is messy if you ask me and I much prefer the futures. Remember it is a ratio trade to get reduced margin, 2:3. As long as feeders are overvalued, and they are, then I want to look to short this spread on rallies.

This is a regressed price zone based upon the stocks to usage ratio.

A sequential alone is enough for me to tighten up stops or lock in gains. I was bullish on decs corn in the low 250's and booked profits in the upper 270's. I think the 280 zone represents a fundamental price zone that will be good resistance unless crop conditions worsen significantly...

I'm thinking we test the level where we gapped lower, which is 115.60, but the prior high could also come into play.

Sort of surprised by the strength today. I still think we can rally and retest 116 on FCQ and still have a top put in. FC/LC spread is still correcting and I think that could persist for quite a while.

I was surprised by strength late in the session, to be really bearish I would have liked to see a close at or near the lows. ] Bias is still negative.

It isn't so much about nailing it dead on but rather about indicating the highest probability moves. I did check the charts on LC and we had a daily sequential then a countdown but cattle keep moving higher for sometime only to fail big time in January. On the weekly charts it was much...

Here are some links for cash, futures and basis: http://www.ams.usda.gov/LSMNpubs/PDF_Daily/DCBS.pdf http://www.ams.usda.gov/LSMNpubs/PDF_Daily/DFSS.pdf http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/livestock/pdf/b2-42.pdf http://www.lmic.info/ Basis is a function of contract month...

If it trades on Friday then it is basically the trade number. The auction report you posted was for a regional Kansas report and should not be relied upon as indicative of the total market. There is always a supply constraint of Feeder cattle in summer that is why August trades above October...

Good, I was really going to question a decision to trade cattle intraday as I know people who say they are but unless you are in the pit or directly in contact with your broker in the pit it would be impossible.