Recent content by tireg

excel attachment from above post.

There is no drag. Expected return does not change after taking into account negative and positive compounding. I'm going to nitpick for a minute here and point out that your example of coin flipping is flawed and more likely just a a poor example. To recap: trader A starts with 200...

Our group just finished a research paper on the matter for an undergraduate research competition - it's a response to Macrae's article a few years ago that looked at hidden costs of the stoploss. Questions/comments/suggestions for improvements welcome. Abstract: In this paper, we present...

I'll drink to that! :cool:

Lawrence Summers* compared the stages of crises to the stages of grief : *Summers, Lawrence H. International Financial Crises: Causes, Preventions, and Cures. Richard T. Ely Lecture, AEA Papers and Proceedings. May 2000. I think people are somewhere between the second and third stage...

<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://bp1.blogger.com/_lPCxpA1k1LY/RxJV6TPYNGI/AAAAAAAAAAc/59HkEHhSGt8/s1600-h/edge+copy.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;"...

Read an interesting piece in the WSJ today about how <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119188420773652765.html?mod=yahoo_itp&amp;ru=yahoo">waiting affects decision making</a>: From the article:<p class="times"></p><p class="times"></p><blockquote><p class="times">Waiting drives some of...

Cutten, thanks for responding. In theory, assuming all individuals are 100% rational and following maximum expectancy with indifference to drawdown, then yes you are correct. However, in practice, almost all people exhibit a utility curve when it comes to what can be referred to as 'winnings'...

http://www.wikiupload.com/comment.php?id=199134 Was having issues uploading so it's hosted here. Zip file of some clips. Click download on the page. The call someone clip is my fav.

Remember ol' Victor Niederhoffer? He's the guy that's selling the OTM puts etc. Taleb is the one buying them ;) Options are a zero sum game. One's returns are merely the exchange for undertaking multiple factors of risk. One thing that makes them unique is the asymmetric payoff...

Happy birthday, $COST! Glad your positions are doing well, as usual :) I've been long $VIX calls and have been legging into some straddles and synthetic shorts out on the DIA lately. Anything crazy planned for this momentous day?

Just a correction to the calculation. The interpretation for '95% Confidence Interval' is for the variation of the mean return (here, 20%) around some true mean return. The confidence interval here is actually much smaller than your initial estimates. Further explanations...

There is no drag. The possibility of an all-win outcome eliminates this, to put it simply. Scroll up and read some of the files and attachments to see that. This thread was mostly an experiment of thought, probing at convention. A more sophisticated method of stop usage would involve...