Recent content by Steveyd

Here's what the Fed Funds futs are predicting: http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1563,00.html As per Rick Santelli on CNBC, we look at non-meeting months for predictions: Apr: 94.75 = (100 - 5.25%) = 0% chance of raise or cut by (end of) April July: 94.815 = 0.065*4 = 26% chance...

So far the 2/27 market drop is playing out like 5/11/2006. Look what could be coming next: (see chart) "Could" is the operative word: I'm not in the business of trying to make money predicting the next move on a daily timeframe, but I think it is useful to keep in mind and consider for your...

At an average trade of about $25/contract and 2.5 trades a day, you may not be able to quit your day job with this system :) I see you've included commissions (good), but what about slippage? This could eat significantly into your $25 on the ES with a $12.50 tick. Does your 3 month test...

20 day ave range, per contract: NQ = $640 ER2 = $1500 $1500 > $640

I noticed the irregular movement on the Qs around 8:20 PST. The T&S showed orders going through above ASK and below BID on the CINN (Cincinnati ?) exchange. This was causing the candle to jump up and down 5 or more cents at a time. Delayed processing of trades (at CINN) might explain this, as...

Great info on the F&F Advisor accounts, esp. SSB. I've got one (more) question though. In the first few pages of the Master account application I was presented with the following: "In order to participate in Interactive Brokers' Friends and Family Advisor Program, you must certify that: ·...

I couldn't log in today using the new version 867. Went back to previous Java version and I could log in and everything worked fine: Java: 1.5_0_02 TWS: 866.5 No more Beta testing for me!

Here's some options for the ER2: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=84546&perpage=6&pagenumber=3

Actually, it's more like a straddle, since you are buying two puts for every one contract you are long (ie ATM, delta=0.5). I have looked into this method and even tried it once, more as a method to hedge my position if the futures exchange went down. The payoff can be positive in both...

I don't think anyone here ever disagreed with 1). You are the one who came up with the "flip the negative expectancy" idea in your first post. .:D I did not say 2), I don't even understand what it means. What I did say was: "You won't have a 50% chance of profit on the next trade if your...

I did not imply that. Expectancy will be close to 0 no matter what the PT and SL are (as asap has been saying). You can't say this without qualifying your exit method. You won't have a 50% chance of profit on the next trade if your PT is double your SL, for example. Let me rephrase...

50% chance only if your profit target and stop loss are the same. Thinking that you can find a random entry strategy with negative expectancy (of any significance) that you can "flip" is the flaw in your logic.

Check out my new "Long Only" system:

You guys crack me up. :D