Recent content by slumdog

Yes you are wasting your time if you are under capitalised. In the mean time you got to be patient and be happy with yearly returns in the 0% to 50% range. So if you only make a 10% or 20% in 2014, is that enough? You probably need a 500K+ account for that to be worthwhile. But the...

I walk into a casino and win 1K on roulette. The casino should shut down because that loss is permanent. The casino shareholders should really think about the implications, will shock them. LOL. Casinos lose money a lot of the time too. Every one of those losses is permanent. But they still...

Being rich can feed the ego. Some people will think they are happier. But it is just an illusion created by the ego. In reality your day to day emotional experiences wont be any better than someone who earns a comfortable living.

Speculative trading returns are subject to statistical variance. 0% in a bad year. 50% in an average year. 100%+ in a really good year. You can try and double or triple that with leverage, but drawdowns and transactions costs go up as well.

Last stock bubble, nasdaq went up 1000% in around 5 years. What we are seeing now is not a bubble in that sense. Now we could still correct 20 to 40% down from these levels. But i doubt we going to see a 80% crash like we saw after the last bubble. But there may more upside before...

If the market is not in the mood to give the trader big winning trades there is little the trader can do, except wait for the market to change. Some people say there was always market X,Y or Z you could have traded over the last the year and made a killing but that is hindsight bias. If...

I have to use my reserves.

Currently down another 1K GBP since i started this thread two months ago. So have about £29300 GBP at moment. Have reduced my trading to only 1 or 2 trades a week, instead of 3 or 4 trades a week i was taking up until recently. Only taking the best set-ups now, trades with a backtested...

Probably 99% of people who attempt day trading give up within 5 years. He is just another statistic. He did well to last 4 years. Most people give up within 4 months.

Few thought the markets in 2007 would ever again go lower than the 2002/2003 lows. S&P was over 1500 and 750 looked miles away. S&P falling at 50 pts a day will take just 20 days to fall a 1000 pts. Of course its not going to go down in a straight line. Even if the average fall is...

How many losers in a row is not the same as your worst case drawdown. Your worst drawdown is probably double the longest expected losing streak. eg, 9 losers, 1 small winner, 4 more losers, 2 small winners, 4 more losers etc Then you have to factor in changing market conditions...

Global stock markets are worth like $75 trillion. And the global bond market is two or three times bigger. The central banks cant keep $250 trillion pumped up forever. The whole thing becomes more and more overvalued and will crash under its own weight.

Market will correct >20% at some point. Nobody knows when.. i reckon sometime next year, but it could defy gravity for a bit longer than that.

It does assume you can find a good counter trend method in the first place. Having both a trend and counter trend method can provide a better combined system. Than just trend on its own.

Wise words. I think counter trend trading can be OK as as long as you always use a tight stop loss and avoid trading high volatility markets. Counter trend trading without a tight stop loss can be deadly to an account.