Recent content by SicilianTM

Found a couple of newer ones:

This won't help. Looks like the ID-jackers are filing false returns, so that the refund they claim to be owed has no relation to the person's actual tax situation. Even if, as in the article, the IRS does a better job of checking e-filed returns against W2's before issuing refunds, a...

I don't think you're going to be able to profit from low volatility alone, unless you have some ability or knowledge to predict an unexpected rise in it. For example, if we just had earnings, and vol drops to a relative low, you might predict an increase in IV for the options which expire just...

Why no profit split? Not even a small performance bonus?

If you're risking your house and car, and in such a way that you can lose them after only three months, well yes that's pretty stupid. I won't be doing that. I agree the OP sounds naive with the "generating steady income" line. I made a living playing online poker for couple of years. First...

I'm looking to do something similar. I think the best thing is to just go for it, instead of talking about it here. There is too much negativity. And by go for it, I don't mean jump right into the market with real money, but do all the research and preparation necessary to give yourself a...

Yes, because using NT you can record a session and then sim trade it after you've already seen what happens. :D

True randomness cannot be traded profitably long term, vs. buy and hold, almost by definition. True randomness has a perfect balance between trendiness and choppiness. What you are referring to as random periods are times where the market behaves choppier than random.

No one who says the markets are random mean the type of randomness you are talking about. They mean that markets follow a random walk - taking current price and raising or lowering it by a random percentage with each step. Additionally, there is a distribution applied. The analogy of a single...

Ignoring the last few pages... I was considering the exact same thing this week. So I made a spreadsheet and put in the bid, ask, and delta of several strikes on the nearest SPY weekly. I chose a dollar amount to risk per trade, and divided by the ask to get the number of contracts. Then I...

Did you trade out of the Oct straddle yet?

IV on the Oct's could get cut in half, and a 5% move in either direction still spoils the plan. And I'm not even counting that you might have gotten the Nov's cheaper by waiting a couple of days.

The Nov strikes have almost 3x the Vega, but won't lose as much IV. It seems like the edge, if any, is tiny here and likely to be eaten up by commissions and B/A.

Are you trying to get a cheap Nov straddle? Or closing the whole thing this week?

Here I was typing a serious answer, and then saw the OP is from September 2008. :mad: