Recent content by roreilly

Thank you for this useful post.

I will be filling up my gas tank today! But I expect some significant resistance at 102. Oil's gone from 92 to 101 in less than a month.

It looks like CL is forming a reversal and a new channel down. We have both lower lows and lower highs in place. Whether we actually close beneath the previous channel trend line (which was drawn back in the middle of January), remains to be seen.

I hope no one minds if I ask for suggestions. My trading is centered around two facts: 1) Oil's daily price range is usually 1.00-1.40, and 2) more than 50% of the time, the high or low of the day is made in the first half hour. So what is my problem? I keep getting shaken out! It is so...

Crude Oil is somewhat seasonal. Between Thanksgiving and Valentine's Day, you can expect that the Average Daily Range (during regular trading hours) will drop from about 1.55 to about 1.25 (with about a .60 standard divergence). I'm sure there are fundamental reasons to explain this, but...

Oil was in Contango for four years before April 2013. No free lunches here, sorry. Check out http://www.riskreversal.com/2013/08/05/chart-of-the-day-crude-oil-contango-to-backwardation-uso/ for more perspective. EIA explains steep backwardation of WTI futures curve HOUSTON, Sept. 24...

November 27 was the day before Thanksgiving and an inventory day. Low volume plus a news event could cause an atypical opportunity. The trading day had a relative narrow trading range.

A rarely discussed indicator is the parabolic stop in Reverse also known as the PSAR. this indicator will help you see how price in CL moves in waves. I also like the Macd histogram for measuring momentum and change of momentum. Of course CL sometimes chops which leads to whipsaws or...

The two big events that stand out in my mind are the weekly inventory reports, and the monthly unemployment report (usually the first Friday of the month). You might want to consider stop limit orders.

Is the Nodoji inventory retrace rule in effect today?

Oil inventory fell 7 million barrels; market yawns. Maybe this is why? (Wall Street Journal Article from yesterday) NEW YORK--Oil futures tumbled Thursday on concerns domestic crude-oil supplies are due to increase this month as production remains high. Light, sweet crude for February...

EIA Oil Inventories due at 11 a.m. ET API on Tuesday showed a surprise rise in crude inventories of 500k barrels. I haven't been able to locate what the street expects.

I think there are some really good suggestions here. I have been personally struggling with this very same issue. Here are my thoughts on the subject matter. The first idea I got from a seminar by Linda Bradford Raschke. You should expect to feel regret when you sell because the price...

Last year CL had a quiet period from Thanksgiving until Valentine's Day (there were about 4 big days in that 10 week span. This year I am trading accordingly. One note: the OVX, which measures oil volatility is about to equal the VIX, which measures the S&P 500 volatility. This would...

Oil down 1% since shortly after API release. 15 minutes to EIA inventory. WSJ reports an expected draw of 2.5 million barrels.