Recent content by ptunic

I'm with asiaprop on this. First off, let's tackle the issue of Chinese consumption. Yes, since Chinese consumers save 45% of income compared to 5% in the US, so their consumption is only 55% of income compared to 95% in the US. However, that is not a bad thing in the slightest for China...

Thanks for the help. Great chart Romanus too :)

5/12/2009 attached. Generally speaking I felt I understood this day better than most though still have difficulty when things get to the goat/FFT level. On the good side I think I identified many of the point 3 traverses by the end of their bars, and saw many heads-up signals about upcoming...

100% with Alan Meltzer. The trillions of dollars of spending/bailouts have to get paid from someone, sometime. The only variables are: who and when. Debt naturally defers the pain till later, but the total pain is higher, that is the whole point; you borrow 5 apples to eat today, but you...

I propose the following metrics just as one (probably over-simplified) possibility. Pick 2 "start dates", perhaps July 2007 and Aug 2008. Keynesian Intervention score = % GDP Fed government deficit + % GDP change in central bank net assets. Take the highest score during the time period...

I think I probably worded by post very poorly. I absolutely agree with you that the Fed printing money helped cause this mess and would cause massive inflation. By keeping interest rates under equilibrium for so long, this caused an imbalance in savings and investment which always causes a...

To be clear I agree with you and think it's a terrible situation. Printing money is not a solution, it is only marginally better than switching chairs on the Titanic. True standard of living growth, as always, can only come from the following 3 variables: a) less debt, higher savings and...

The Fed is easily capable, willing, and has already begun to address aggregate demand for money (money supply * money velocity). They brought short term Fed rates to near 0%. They are in the process of bringing long term debt to under 2%. If needed, they will increase direct purchases...

I'm with AMT4SWA on this long term. We're looking at a potential "perfect storm" upside on gold. * Fed doubled net assets; biggest increase in history by far * > 10% deficit spending, one of the largest in the US, and implicitly will be financed by the Fed * China is eager to...

Special thanks to Spydertrader! Also Tums for some help on stuff :) Best wishes to everyone for 2009!

Today's chart.

Great post, 100% agree. Personally I think what is coming the next 10 years is a Japanese style rolling recession/depression but with a more inflationary ("stagflation") bias. I've said it months ago and I'll say it again, I see zero chance of severe deflation. The Fed will start buying...

Yes, that helps a lot. Thanks!!

Spyder, your charts from last year I believe showed FTT's, but I don't think I've seen them as much or at all in some cases this year. (My guess on this one is you can tell by where the new traverses and channel's point 1's are as they overlap with FTT's). On a similar note, I don't see...

Yup. The system is a pay-go system. Current taxpayers pay for current retirees. Thus there is zero savings and zero investment. This is one of the biggest things that hurt the US economy the last few decades; the main retirement program contributes zero to savings (and also makes people...