Recent content by profturf

One has several enemies --- one of whom I have a Judgment of several big ones against along with his bounced checks. Another who applied for a job here with an IQ of 170 and the ability to foretell every range. I didn’t hire the latter because the ability to call a fuzzy range has nothing to...

It is interesting to note that the S&P trend following index of investable funds reported daily on Bloomberg at 1209 at close 5 8 is ups 13% from its year end close of 1069. It's covered this ground since its 1069 close on FEB 27. The April flash reports of the largest 130 CTA programs...

In previous posts, I have reported serial correlation coefficients, and performance figures for the 3 major trend following cta's featured in the Covel book, and discussed the fallacy of relying on anecdotal reports of retrospecptively chosen advisers, who at one time or another were...

One has recently read a provacative article by Taleb and Mandelbrot on the errors and problems that investors make by relying on the normal distribution rather than the power law distributions for analyzing market behavior. They point to the inordinate number of large 12 sigma events they note...

I often see reports that a great trend following guru living in this resort of another just can look at a chart from across the room and determine if its going up or down, and then the better it looks , the more he buys or sells. These pleasant reflections on reports were brought home again by...

Might I suggest with all due respect that the work showing that information theory or chaos theory to markets is descriptive and not predictive. and that we tend to place too much weight on it because of the subtle use of the transfer method of propaganda. smart people tend to know these...

Might I suggest a positive approach that could thread some numerical light on this very erudite and informative discussion. ? Gold has crept up to $ 493. Is it more or less likely to break thru 500 than random? Same for bund at 119.63. Is 120.oo in the cards. What about DJI at 10820...

It is good to read all the erudite posts about the ability of trend followers and the lack of randomness in prices, as well as those that memorialize the past and predict the future disasters of VN,and point to the benevolent return of NT to the trading world from his all too lengthy...

One is unfairly tarred on both sides by being treated with kid gloves by the discredited Mr. Surf, and an ability to spell that Horses A .. name correctly. Nevertheless , I will answer the query posted about results of funds in a systematic fashion and remind all the users that...

As indicated in previous posts, I have knowledge of that horse's ass Niederhoffer from being a past customer of his fund. I am particularly interested in the results of funds and have access to daily returns reported on Bloomberg for a purchasable index of 7 of the biggest hedge funds as...

Many beautiful posts of a live and let live nature, let the farmer and the cowboy be friends have been posted conerning the separate niches and changing fortunres of the trend folllowers and the reversal boys.But let us not stop there. How can these changing cycles a la my namesake be...

an inquiry comes as to whether a notorious option seller 's activities are in the main involved in individual stocks or indexes? I would believe based on what I know of that personages activities, especially those that are documented on the some 300000 bloomberg terminals in...

a cordial inquiry comes my way concerning how many times I believe Niederhoffer has blown up and whether he has changed his methods and this explains his recent results. I would think that the report of his previous blowups might be taken with a grain of salt . For example, in the gladwell...

I see a query relating to documentation of that horse's --- Niederhoffer's returns. I am familiar with those results as an investor, and also a subsriber to MAR,TASS, Blloomberg and most of the other ratings services. MAR ranks him in their JUne issue as number 1 for performance of...