Recent content by postal

Hank, try iwn like I said before. I posted a chart of trading the 34/8 ema of iwn earlier in this thread. Also, try ewo,iyr,ewy,dsv,ewz,eem,adre,ilf,iws, and iwo. On the managed mutual fund side, try odmax (see chart posted in this thread), frmcx (now closed to new investors, but may reopen)...

Hank, is there a trading system that does not result in wildly disparate results of traders using it? As I said before, some securities trade well with trends, some don't. You have to pick your battles, and the way to do it is to backtest your strategy. For example, I will never trend trade...

So, it is well documented that trend trading works for some securities, right? And this has been documented over 10 years, right? I don't think there's any guarantees in this business. That said, what's your basis for your serious doubts about trend trading? I disagree with your statement...

Questions: What securities did you backtest? What moving averages did you use? What time period? (last 3 months, last 12 months, 5yrs) What time frame? (5 min, hourly, daily) What was the gain and/or Sharpe Ratio? If you post the securities you used, I can check them out to see if...

It's easy to see if a trend method works or not....just apply it to a security and see if you have consistent profits. If you're using moving averages to identify a trend, look at historical performance using that moving average. Backtesting is crucial to determining if a particular trend...

OK, that's all I'll say on trend trading....looks like there are some folks that like it, some that hate it. Each to his own. There's a lot of ways to make money in the markets, and trend trading is only one of them.... Caio

Hank, the selection of a secuity to trend trade is not random. You have to look at the historical performance of a security applying your trend trading technique. Some securities can be trend traded, some can't. Again, look at the charts of odmax and iwn I posted a few days ago. These are...

Thunderdog, yes, I knew you were agreeing with me and I thank you; I guess the post about verification was for those who may not have thought it was possible to "see" a trend and trade it successfully and objectively using a purely mechanical system. That's why I posted the charts for odmax and...

Thunderdog: What I posted was anecdotal, yes, but at least for the charts on odmax and iwn it's verifiable that you can use simple trending techniques to beat Buy & Hold pretty handily. Using just about any trading software, you can reproduce the results I got.

NickelScalper: I think the best argument against random success was the return I got in 2002. It's the one I'm most proud of. The markets were down big time, yet I ecked out a positive return, all because the moving averages were showing sell and I was in bonds. The chart I posted for...

Thanks, Hank, but your praise is undeserved. Take a look at the gif files I posted above. These are purely mechanical trades...no skill involved.

NickleScalper, how do you define "reliability?" You want numbers? This year so far I am down 5% (trendless markets.) Last year (2004) I was up 24%, most of it made in the last four months. In 2003 I was up 47%. Good trending markets. In 2002 up 8%, mostly from cash and bonds. In 2001...

If anybody's interested, here's one version of an Excel spreadsheet I was using a few years back to keep track of stock trading. As long as you have a limit or target price and specify a risk/reward ratio (RR Ratio), you can use the spreadsheet to give you an indication of when to take a trade...

NickelScalper: When you say trend trading doesn't work, and others (like me) say it does work, I think everybody's right and everybody's wrong. Why? Because we're never talking about the same time frame and/or the same security and/or the same time period. It's unquestionable and...

Lefty, here's a composite equity curve trading three ETFs (EWO, IYR and IWN) using a combo of ema crossover, macd histogram crossover and stochastic histogram crossover for each of the three ETFs, i.e., each ETF has its own trend trading signal. The params I use are always Fibonacci numbers...