Recent content by OverKill

Hi ssanders82. I just tried it out and found it pretty cool. Seems to me that this applet may be useful to assess if someone´s intuition is any good. However, if you really want to make it instructional, add some sort of position sizing algorithm or multiple algorithms and let the user...

I´m very interested in learning more about your views. Is there any online source or bibliography that you could point so I could expand upon?

Hi Maestro. I´m another lurker that has been drawn out by this interesting subject. I´m no expert in probability and statistics. I´m slowly going through the learning curve, as I believe that over the long haul, being a skeptic doesn´t hurt. I also think that setting out to beat the...

Commiting a "postdictive error" is the same as "peeking into the future". It occurs when you design your rules around information that would never be available when you actually implemented the system, for example, "enter long at tomorrow´s low and sell at tomorrow´s high". This is an absurd...

As far as I know, like ntfs posted above, CSI is the only provider that sells delisted stock data. I have also heard about Worden Brothers (www.worden.com) as good suppliers of this type of data, but haven´t looked much further. You may want to check them out. Another option you may want to...

Hi there. I´m probably not the most qualified person to talk about this subject, but here are some things you may want to consider when backtesting: 1. Most successful system builders stress that more is always better. That means a larger quantity of trades, different types of markets and...

Hi fader. Yes, I used actual historical market data, pretty much the same way Van Tharp talked about in his book. However, I respectfully disagree, in the sense that I believe the exit actually does provide an edge. Like you said, it is staying with the trend for the longest time possible...

Hi billp. For this test I used a 20 day ATR and a 10 ATR stop from the trigger day´s close. Since it is so wide, it can sit there for years, with the market going nowhere. Note that this was just an exercise, I would never do this myself, not without some minimal indication of where the...

Hi there. Interesting that you guys mention testing random entries. I just ran some simulations some days ago with this subject in mind. While I´m far from being a pro or an expert in statistics, I have come to truly understand the importance of a good and robust liquidation technique. In...