Recent content by NorskTrader

These contracts trade in euros, with euros now costing a little more than a buck a piece. EuroSTOXX 50: 1 point per tick, 10 euros per point, thus 10 euros per tick EuroBund: 1/100 point per tick, 1000 euros per point, thus 10 euros per tick CAC 40: 1/2 point per tick, 10 euros...

Donaldduck, I've just started a separate thread that may solicit responses to your question. Please see: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=304678#post304678

Donaldduck, I like EuroSTOXX 50 most of all, then Eurobund. Lots of liquidity in both. If you're an individual trader with a reasonable account you should find no practical size constraints. And the moves are comparable to those in the U.S. index futures, perhaps greater by some measures...

Coming right up... a question from donaldduck on another thread:

Yes, I'm wondering, too. So far I can't find anything on the IRS, SEC, CFTC, NFA or Eurex web sites that specifically addresses this, and my broker understandably isn't interested to take a position either. My failure to find anything doesn't mean such information is not there, but I am...

Bingo. Exactly. I only average down when a system has this idea built in. This means, among other things, that the addition is done before the position's original stop is hit, and the add-to portion has its own, even tighter stop. And while I agree in principle with the idea that there is an...

Dottom, Thanks for another thought provoking post. I guess this would be an example of the first category you've mentioned: Instead of imposing a view that one or another strategy is trending vs. reversal vs. breakout vs. etc., I've found it's normally helpful to let actual trade...

Interesting stuff, Bruce. Thanks. And, agrau, thanks for that link.

Bruce, I am not a subscriber, but perhaps I should begin to be. Since your Buyers'/Sellers' Advantage is adaptive, does this mean your spreadsheet's forecasts are based on a moving probability distribution of some kind, or perhaps a Monte Carlo from a trailing period? If this is all...

Very interesting spreadsheet, Bruce. Thanks for the link. NorskTrader

Dottom, thank you for your helpful mention of the literature on this. You've gotten me started on another leg of my education. Here was one of the more interesting things I found: http://pchen.ccer.edu.cn/homepage/Homepage%20Chinese/AED2003/readingpapers/StochModel/SNDE96p.PDF I...

Also, BobbyMercerFan, I should also mention that I share your view that real price changes can be probabilistically forecast. Indeed, my main work is systems design, which of course is usually if not always predicated on the assumption of some patterns in price behavior. I must confess...

BobbyMercerFan, you make some excellent points, and I appreciate how much careful thinking you've already done about this. For the record, let me mention that the spreadsheet I built was preceded by an earlier version in which the element of the normal distribution wasn't present. In that...