Recent content by nimrod

Have a look here http://sabretache.blogspot.com/ for the odd posting about trading, precious metals, economic matters, politics and any odd off-the-wall topic that happens to catch my attention. I'm a professional trader with no particular trading axe to grind. I started blogging as a...

'The Powers That Be'

Gold, silver, copper or aluminium trader? Think you've seen major price action already this past 12 months? Well, you ain't seen nuthin yet! Why? - because NYMEX has just announced that, effective Sunday 4th June for electronic trading and Monday 5th June for the pit-traded contracts...

The statement is self-explanatory (axiomatic if you like). Elaboration would involve discussion of its consequences. Taleb's book (Fooled by Randomness) does a pretty thorough job of that. Whether or not the statement itself is true is another matter entirely. I contend that it PROBABLY...

Never forgetting that events can occur with zero probability

Not sure go along with that entirely For example, and reverting to the coin toss sequence again: The outcome probability of every toss is the same but, if a series were constructed based on betting results that included feedback from the developing outcome of bets (trades) on SUCCESSIVE...

Coin toss sequences are interesting but they exclude the human input consequences of feedback from the results of the last coin toss (price level) on the next result.

I think most debate about the predictability or otherwise of market direction - on any time frame - is apt to confuse abstract with real and cause with effect. There is one thing that is 100% predictable: Price moves up or down dependant upon the balance between buyers and sellers at a...

Better still, what will happen when just a few % of investors decide their money might be safer in gold - or under the mattress. With the current fractious state of consumer confidence, it looks like an accident waiting to happen to me. Which of course is why we need a constant bullish refrain...

I doubt there are many grocers or bums on the subway set up to short the futures markets. And, with mutual funds currently at 3.6% cash on aggregatet, there are clearly few of them practicing what you say they are preaching. Not many times in history when they've been so fully invested in fact -...

Exactly. It's called 'moral hazard' and it's dangerous. It causes a disconnect between financial markets and intrinsic value such that, when the chickens finally DO come home to roost, markets go down with a vengeance. I guess it goes some way to explaining why downs are always faster than...

I have discovered a serious problem with my 'Trade opposite your signals' method: Over the sort of period originally suggested, and despite a dwindling account balance, the fact is that anyone who seriously applies himself should improve performance, particularly on intra-day price/volume...

But beware the end result of burgeoning moral hazard...... Everyone just KNOWS that the WGOFM's (aka PPT) will not counteneance a serious market downturn now don't they?? - until such may be condusive to the interests of the powers that be that is These guys have real power and all the...