Recent content by nimrod

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    New(ish) blogg

    Have a look here http://sabretache.blogspot.com/ for the odd posting about trading, precious metals, economic matters, politics and any odd off-the-wall topic that happens to catch my attention. I'm a professional trader with no particular trading axe to grind. I started blogging as a...
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    COMEX eliminates price fluctuation limits

    'The Powers That Be'
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    COMEX eliminates price fluctuation limits

    Gold, silver, copper or aluminium trader? Think you've seen major price action already this past 12 months? Well, you ain't seen nuthin yet! Why? - because NYMEX has just announced that, effective Sunday 4th June for electronic trading and Monday 5th June for the pit-traded contracts...
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    Predicting randomness

    The statement is self-explanatory (axiomatic if you like). Elaboration would involve discussion of its consequences. Taleb's book (Fooled by Randomness) does a pretty thorough job of that. Whether or not the statement itself is true is another matter entirely. I contend that it PROBABLY...
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    Predicting randomness

    Never forgetting that events can occur with zero probability
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    Predicting randomness

    Not sure go along with that entirely For example, and reverting to the coin toss sequence again: The outcome probability of every toss is the same but, if a series were constructed based on betting results that included feedback from the developing outcome of bets (trades) on SUCCESSIVE...
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    Predicting randomness

    Coin toss sequences are interesting but they exclude the human input consequences of feedback from the results of the last coin toss (price level) on the next result.
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    Predicting randomness

    I think most debate about the predictability or otherwise of market direction - on any time frame - is apt to confuse abstract with real and cause with effect. There is one thing that is 100% predictable: Price moves up or down dependant upon the balance between buyers and sellers at a...
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    Why shorting is no longer a viable strategy in the US Market.

    Better still, what will happen when just a few % of investors decide their money might be safer in gold - or under the mattress. With the current fractious state of consumer confidence, it looks like an accident waiting to happen to me. Which of course is why we need a constant bullish refrain...
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    Why shorting is no longer a viable strategy in the US Market.

    I doubt there are many grocers or bums on the subway set up to short the futures markets. And, with mutual funds currently at 3.6% cash on aggregatet, there are clearly few of them practicing what you say they are preaching. Not many times in history when they've been so fully invested in fact -...
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    Why shorting is no longer a viable strategy in the US Market.

    Exactly. It's called 'moral hazard' and it's dangerous. It causes a disconnect between financial markets and intrinsic value such that, when the chickens finally DO come home to roost, markets go down with a vengeance. I guess it goes some way to explaining why downs are always faster than...
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    Surefire profits on index futures

    I have discovered a serious problem with my 'Trade opposite your signals' method: Over the sort of period originally suggested, and despite a dwindling account balance, the fact is that anyone who seriously applies himself should improve performance, particularly on intra-day price/volume...
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    Why shorting is no longer a viable strategy in the US Market.

    But beware the end result of burgeoning moral hazard...... Everyone just KNOWS that the WGOFM's (aka PPT) will not counteneance a serious market downturn now don't they?? - until such may be condusive to the interests of the powers that be that is These guys have real power and all the...
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