There will be a huge gap up on Monday morning. The question is how to play it. At some point it will get faded, but when?
I don't have the guts to buy into the mother of all gaps, but many will.
Lets discuss specific ways to play this.
Jump in early in the futures premarket and hols...
stop B/E
No_PM has found reducing stops from original is not as effective. I reduce stop as trade develops. On counter trend trades I don't give much room.
My interpretation of method:
10:00 ADX +30
10:20 New high, divergence CCI, money flow
10:25 failed to make new high
10:30 Short Spy 103.66 or ES 1030.25
Stop was .22 spy, now B/E
My trigger was at the open of the 1425 bar @ 102.54 spy or 1019 ES
My 1540 bar was .25 short of the Kelter (ES),so never really touched. I would have closed out at the close of the 1555 bar for a gain of .14 SPY or +1.75 ES.
Better than a kick in the teeth!!
Different indicators and...
Not showing Divergence on Money flow at this time, but still shows on CCI
I won't be taking trade if it sets up because I am already short on a longer time frame
looks like it will fail to make new low w/ the close of the 1420 bar so entry would be open of 1425
Potential trade meeting No-PM's criteria, (based in 5 min ES)
1330 ADX +30
1410 new low after ADX, Diveregence w/ CCI & Moneyflow and price ( I don't use Chaikin)
Needs to fail to make a new low then enter long on the open of next bar
(I use the SPY when testing new setups for trades...
1005 bar was above the KB. The 1010 bar did not make new high. The entry was the open of the 1015 bar. the 1015 bar made a new HOD but did not get my stop.
Moved my stop to 103.30, just under HOD, but might get out earlier depending on other indicators
this is a tough trend to be counter too
MarkB
I saw it but did not take because it was just before the ISM number.I use a bit different indicators for divergence than No-PM does. I saw Divergence on money flow but not the CCI
MarkB
He covered this on 8/11:
"I like to see the trade progress in a order. The first is the ADX crossing above 30. Once that happens I look for a new high or low in the trend with a volume divergence to indicate continued momentum"
No-pm
There is absolutely no need for you to post your statements. If we were paying for your information it would be a different matter, but we are freely sharing ideas here. Anyone asking for that information is being extremely rude and should be ashamed.
Great Journal, thanks for sharing.
Confused a bit about the win/loss ratios
You said:
"The risk/reward overall for me has been better than 3:1. The win rate has been about 70% and the win versus loss rate on trades has been about 1.4 to 1. When the two are combined, it comes up to better...