Recent content by morganpbrown

There's some interesting "value" stuff in the world of smallcaps. At least they are not distorted by being in an index and thereby passively inflated. The businesses tend to be more pure plays, so presumably you can wrap your head around the fundamentals. Plenty of stocks with P/E's under 10...

Aha! => 2 months later => Nope. Aha! => 2 months later => Nope. Aha! => 2 months later => Nope. Aha! => 2 months later => Nope. Aha! => 2 months later => Nope. etc. Still fun, though.

I started and sold a business. It was the most exciting and enjoyable experience of my life. People from the outside always said, "I don't know how you could handle the stress." But really it didn't feel like stress. It was invigorating. There were challenges but through hard work I at...

I like Herb Alpert (and naked ladies covered in whipped cream). "Rise" was a great tune from the late 70's.

I should change my handle to NaN.

A $10K account is an experiment. A $1MM account is a portfolio (for most of us). I can focus on one trading concept (experimental account) and do OK. But I'm unwilling to concentrate my entire portfolio on one concept, so I also find it challenging to scale up.

I have a day job in front of a computer, so trading is just more time in front of the computer, that could be spent doing something physical or otherwise not in front of a computer. So I think that trading has not changed my life for the better, yet I find it so interesting that I can't put...

Trend Following by Michael Covel

A theme i've been hearing is that the fed's main concern is avoiding a credit crunch. Stock market stability not their worry. To me, it implies that real estate will not suffer another 2007-12 crash, but stocks might drop 40%. Real estate will be protected this time. Gold has been on a short...

I am bullish oil (1-6 months) until it gets derailed by macro, and that could happen at any moment. All it takes is one good whiff of demand destruction to start the train down. And we are seeing small whiffs of slowdown every day Very long term (after the next recession) I am bullish oil...

Every bit of data mining that ive done - when you train the model with the past year of data - points to a reflexive rally off any dip. Shocker! :D I bet that will change if it hasnt already

All very interesting and appreciated. You point 4) in particular is something I hadn’t thought of before.

A few years ago I created a huge number of indicators, tens of thousands. Is GLD over or under the 200 dma? Did unemployment fall last month? etc., etc., etc. And lo and behold, a few indicators had ridiculously high win rates, like 75% or more. Obviously they had no predictive power. :)

For some reason the message board didn't post the thumbnail to Amazon correctly. I believe you mean this book: https://www.amazon.com/Advances-Financial-Machine-Learning-Marcos-ebook/product-reviews/B079KLDW21 Looks like a good one

Do you have any recommended resources (or personal insights) on backtesting? Specifically, I'm interested in subjects like out-of-sample backtesting, choosing the out-of-sample period(s), total length of backtest, weighting different intervals differently, etc. Also interested in understanding...