Events move markets, both ways up and down. Even with all this algorithmic/box trading, greed and fear take their toll.
And there are always some insiders who take positions before the event (even orchestrating events) :eek:
Teach - VBA - easy enough and wide spread.
Learn - Matlab / SciLab - good script language, I use for trading strategies development and back-testing. Very sophisticated tools for graphics and statistics are included.
:)
1. It looks like -20% is the boundary for you between fear and panic emotions. Stick to it (it is your risk profile).
2. You presented no evidence that all your systems have the same probability to hit the -20% DD. Some will do it more often.
And probably they all are correlated. So, on some...