Recent content by Misthos

Unfortunately, I agree. I don't see a peaceful resolution. Only a gradual worsening of the current situation.

Ah yes, the "globalization ensures peace" theory. I suggest that as globalization peaks, as it did just before 1914 and 1929, that the subsequent breakdown in globalization leads to war. US companies made a boatload of money from selling to the Nazis before WWII. As complex systems...

I have been following Faber for years. He is one of the few to predict this crisis. One week before the 1987 crash, he urged investors to get out of the market. He also called the March 2009 bottom. I agree with Faber, this will end in war. It's unavoidable. The imbalances in the global...

I think we are already going thru peak conventional oil. Understanding peak oil is complicated because there are different grades of oil and different extraction techniques that also affect cost. But you also have a fiat money system, not a gold standard, so central bank reflation attempts...

Then short it. But keep in mind: Central Banks are now net buyers of gold. There's a reason for that. If you want to bet against the house - good luck.

The Euro is faulty as designed. And Germany, by having the highest trade surplus and low consumption, is also contributing to the Euro's demise. If Greece was the only issue, then I would agree. But it's not. The Architecture of the Euro is flawed. There is no recycling mechanism for...

Oil is fungible. The price of Canadian, Mexican, or GOM oil is affected by what happens in the Middle East. No one is immune, especially Western Industrial countries that per capita, consume and import the most oil of anyone else on the planet. But I can think of one exception. I don't...

morganist, Good luck with the blog! I've been blogging since last September. I have a new appreciation for bloggers that post several times a day, every day. It's not easy.

Ed, The debt does not have to be paid off completely. No sovereign debt should be paid off completely as that would be extremely deflationary. Unless, of course they are an exporting powerhouse, but even that would create other negative consequences. private sector savings = public sector...

I agree with you. Yes, barring complete incompetence, the US can never default on its debt, but I will also add: the US, barring complete incompetence will never have a bad auction either. Treasury auctions are "rigged" games in my opinion. The seller polls the usual suspects on what they...

FWIW: http://m.economist.com/free-exchange-21014702.php From the article: "I’ve poked around on this, and it seems to be a legal black hole. A bond is in essence a contract; does a contractual obligation rank ahead or behind a statutory obligation such as Social Security cheques? This...

Well said.

darkhorse: Keep in mind, the number one thing that adds value to the dollar is the fact that taxes are paid in dollars. Economic output is taxed in dollars, and so there will always be demand for dollars. Which brings me to this: why was the federal reserve created within a year of the...

Political, Economic, and Societal complexity is how I view the multi-shelled system you describe. Hypercomplexity creates its own downfall. Human systems tend to revert to simplicity, and then, re-complexify. The real-life implications of the abstraction I described above are going to be...

Sure thing. But I'll have to respond tomorrow. It's night time here... I'm heading out on the town soon.