Recent content by McBet

I wonder if these are some sort of expiry imbalances - last expiry also caused max pain to CL call buyers. But the discount to Brent (at 22) went outside of its channel and is now parabolic, not sure how to interpret relative weakness of CL. Does the Fed need a low inflationary environment for...

Discount to Brent nearing 19... upper trendline... CL a bit oversold?

Indeed it was as clear an example of technical trading controlling the market as that triple touch of the 6M trendline in ES last summer (around 1040). Now we also have an inverse head and shoulders pattern (another bottom marker) and green shoots of a new trendline.

Bot JUL11 104 call @1.64 after pit close. Will sell if CL drops below 94

The euro has already corrected down to the middle of the range (1.2-1.6)... if it indeed goes down by 1/4 of its range more, then Rogers will come knocking for cleavage:) http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2011/05/i-own-euro.html (he also said he wasn't selling any commodity...

These option trades were both premature and badly executed (wrong contract). I finally closed 4 lots on MAY 12 at 14:09.55 for a -0.10 loss per contract, having doubled down (bought 2 lots) on May 11 at 12:14:52 at 0.50. You can double down on long options, because they have positively skewed...

Accumulation in CL started later today - they had to bring down the euro to the bottom of its channel (which is down in contrast to CL and ES). These green patterns are truly beautiful... adding more here to my 97 longs... 20 pts target i think

Long 104 calls @ $1.0 avg. I think the 6m TL hs been defended

Wouldn't use the official risk measures (such as VaR and SPAN) because they are cyclical and can only lead to deleveraging crashes. We should be reducing market exposure when the risk rises - the only prudent risk measure - the price. Sell as the sun shines, load up in hard times. Can the...

It might have been the correlation trade with the euro (down again, but the previous top is just 1 cent away at 1.427) that triggered today's surprise "gap fill"... and now no doubt bears will try to push ES inside the downward channel

And if they don't create data mining bias themselves (by not using genetic algos and some such) and discover something useful during the first program run (as they should), then the problem will be in the pattern database summarizing the collective data mining efforts of not only the vendor, but...

Yes, but how do you monetize psychological comfort? Isn't it just the same skewness preference that causes general public to buy lottery tickets? If you observe that your bankable performance deteriorates markedly as a result of using stops (and it is not necessarily always the case BTW), then...

As a matter of performance evaluation for the Big Short guys, they forecasted a 20% drop in crude oil on 12th of April (likely from the recent top, i.e. targetting 90 in CL): "Using Goldman's estimates, that indicates the total speculative premium in U.S. crude oil is currently between $21.40...

And imagine that a sequence of two 4-point drops did not manage to tighten the Brent-WTI spread, which has negative unhedged delta (currently 15 points) so it should fall together with Brent... quite the opposite - the spread is still near the highs for this contract... a 15/5 R:R trade. (Edit...

Wait with shorting Brent until the pair gets really stretched, possibly to 20 (it already reached 16 this year, previous historical top being 12). The oligopoly of refiners just ignores such cost differences... the customer will pay anyway. Crude oil producers won't do the arb either, because...