The Slope of the 200 Day Moving Average seems to carry major importance in determing the direction of a long-term trend.
Is it calculated by the following formula?
Price Today minus Price 200 days ago divided by 200 days
Here's an article about timertrac. They have been around since late 1990's so they have been around for awhile.
http://www.investorbrain.com/index.php/logicalblocks/2006/12/
What moving average do you use in your calculation? Personally, I use the 200 day moving average. I calculate the number of standard deviations a particular index/commodity is trading above or below its 200 day moving average.
Of particular interest right now is the XAU which is trading...
I agree with you 100%. Adding small positions makes sense in this kind of environment.
This could qualify as a black swan event for the XAU since a level of 4 standard deviations below its 200 day moving average is such a rare event. The last period of time the XAU was even 3 standard...
As of 8/11/08, the XAU stands at 3.98 standard deviations below its 200 day moving average.
This may be the largest deviation ever for the XAU below its 200 day moving average.
Its scary to get in front of a falling knife but it looks tempting to buy...