Recent content by markettimer

I believe this could be real, since I experienced something similar during 08-09. Wabu, 7 years ago I had $210K in debt and no assets after blowing up my account. It was a painful ordeal and nearly derailed my life. Eventually, I accepted the losses and started building back, step by step. It...

Alternative explanation: The higher the US domestic production, the lower the WTI price (i.e., you reversed causality in the title).

The FOMC certainly lifted crude on Wednesday (3/18), but the front month outperformance actually happened on Thursday and Friday. Here are the closing prices for 3/17, 3/18, 3/19, and 3/20: CLJ5: 42.43, 44.69, 43.85, 45.87 CLM5: 46.37, 48.8, 47.54, 48.34 And here are the daily changes for...

I noticed April crude futures (CLJ5) sharply outperformed May (CLK5) and June (CLM5) futures the past few days, coinciding with the upcoming expiration of the April contract. Any thoughts on why this happened?

Yeah, have noticed the recent dollar outperformance. These positions were chosen after the dollar rally. US stocks are expensive relative to the rest of the world. USD is up considerably since summer, JPY is especially cheap on a REER basis. I'm not forecasting doom and gloom for the US economy...

I'm expecting the dollar rally will fizzle in 2015. Here is my allocation as we near the end of 2014. Hope not to suffer too much abuse in the months ahead. Equities (net 30%) 30% Emerging markets equities 30% Developed markets equities -30% US equities Commodities (30%) 12% near month WTI...

He's saying it's 30 years between peaks, e.g., a peak in the early 80s followed by a peak in 2012, with a valley in between.

How about looking at trading jobs in a corporate (non-banking) role, like at a mining or energy company? They hire traders for hedging purposes mostly. Good way to learn about end-user demand. Likely easier to get an entry-level position there than at a bank.

DoubleT, this is a very interesting thread, I just read the whole thing. I now find myself in a similar situation as you were two years ago (a few years of solid returns, ~$600K equity), and can only hope to have a similar experience over the next two years as you have had. A few questions came...

This is part of the reason for dividing assets roughly evenly between cash reserve (30%), trading account (30%), and retirement portfolio (40%). There is still the option to "go big or go home," as you suggest, in the event of an unusually good opportunity. I have considered a larger allocation...

For me, this is a very timely question. I've recently left a high-paying job in my early 30s and will trade as my only source of income. If I had the choice, I would have worked a few more years to build up my trading capital, but circumstances would have made this difficult. First, my...

In your case, I recommend learning how to invest, not trade, at www.bogleheads.org. If you have $1mn, you should realistically be able to come up with a plan that allows you to withdraw $30-40K/year inflation-adjusted for spending.

A PhD involves discovering something new and being skeptical. A master's involves learning in a classroom. Therefore, a PhD is better suited for trading. A PhD is also a much longer program, so you have time to research trade ideas. As for which discipline is best for a trader, I would guess...