Recent content by MajorUrsa

I seems Maverick implies that time-skew is the only reason why calendars seem attractive. I'm still not convinced, maybe because I'm missing a point here. As I said, I never used long calendars to buy low volatility but I used short ones to sell high vol. Since that works I don't see why the...

Happy, healthy and prosperous 2015 to all! I think I see what you mean, but I still feel that if an ATM long cal is considered a good bet, so would a double long calendar be. I agree that modeling it correctly is probably useless effort. I somehow miss why it would be so much worse. In the...

I agree that there is more risk to calendars than seems at first sight, specifically because of the difference in IV of the legs. The vega-effect is also much more prominent in calendars than the (increasing) negative gamma. So it probably isn't worth it to widen the latter anyway. But I can see...

ATM calendars are long vega and theta, but have a rather strong negative gamma going off-center. The idea of a double calendar would be to keep the +v and +t but lessen the gamma-effect by broadening the range. Never tried it, but what's wrong with that plan?

A lot has changed in the last 2 years, you should try some again.

I looked at the graph after hours and wondered about the reversal at around 6:15PM. Couldn't find a good reason. Until I saw that at that exact moment you started one of your rants again. We all know you were always a good one to fade but it is getting eerie now. It seems the whole market reads...

I think we see here the closest that The Turd ever came to going short. And guess what, 5 min later the marker bounced up LOL! He really is the perfect contrarian. :p Ursa..

I don't get it, how can you claim to have predicted something for the last 2 hours when there is still 1.5 hour to go? Smelly. Anyway, since you never sell you will never profit from you prediction. You still have to make up for 6000 YM points, or US$30,000 per contract. I expect the...

The US would have been a lot more independent of foreign oil if there hadn't been 12 years of reign by one of the wealthiest oil-producing families. They were tied closely to the dealers of the drug (Saudi friends of Bush leaving US by private jet on 11/10, hardly any other planes in the air...

Phew, that's a relief. Since you always predict the opposite of what actually happens this would mean good news.

Those things already happened, no need to be scared anymore. Can't get any worse than this. Did no one warn you that this would happen with a monkey in the White House? Wth are you talking about. Are you trying to do some fear mongering like your idol Goebbels did so succesfully before he...

Apparently you know nothing about fascism. What you want is a dictatorship. Facsism would probably imply a dictator, but tnot the other way around. I am sure that neither Paul nor Buchanan would call themselves fascist, because they are educated enough to know how dangerous that 'ideology' is...

Ah, a fascist. Good to know...

Very good wiki, essential read. Imo impeachment would show the world that US citizens take their country, it's law and themselves seriously. It also would form somekind of apology for electing this clown (twice) and allowing him to destroy so many good things around this world, in spite of...

I remind you all that dr. Ron Paul said all this, and more, before it all happened. Not now, when any senator that speaks the populace' mouth will advance his relection chances. The sheeple that elected Bush jr. and Cheney will of course fall for this as well. Also I would like to remind...