Recent content by magic423

Options have a -EV even if there are no commissions and regardless of the B/A spread. Those factors only increase the amount of -EV.

MasterAtWork: 1- I never mentioned delta as a probability, although the delta is usually very close to the calculated natural state probability. 2- There is a probability for every event and every non-event. Whether you wish to acknowledge it or not, that is your decision. And I suspect...

<b>The Answer To The Problem Revealed...</b> Yes there is a solution to the problem. I have detailed the answer and provided some additional info in the attached article. Hope you enjoy it and perhaps it may spark some interest and comments.

<b>The Answer To The Problem Revealed...</b> Yes there is a solution to the problem. I have detailed the answer and provided some additional info in the attached article. Hope you enjoy it and perhaps it may spark some interest and comments.

You are correct that it doesn't have an inherent edge, it has an inherent DISadvantage. Every option position has a negative EV (effective value) based on the data provided on every trading platform. The issue is not whether the options are priced fairly, that's a factor beyond the control of...

Yes... it is obvious you didn't read the entire post.

traderlux: I have posted an honest and legitimate problem for which I seek a possible solution. You're inability to address the problem is not justification for sarcasm. I have been direct and to the point, but I have treated each reply with respect. The tone of your post is offensive and...

James: You make an excellent point. At the same time, the market quantifies future expected behavior based on past behavior. Pricing is set by supply and demand, a reflection of how investors believe traders will behave in the future based on how they have behaved in the past. If they...

I don't think I'm defensive and sorry if you take it that way. I am simply responding. One person says to find a reason to pick a direction, so I point out that without something concrete (numbers) to validate and test the selection method the procedure is little more than guessing. I'm told...

Thanks for your input. I have to disagree with you however. Please understand, I'm not trying to be argumentative, but this is a serious business (huge business) involving big money and almost every aspect of this business is broken down and defined by numbers. Smart people are not going to...

I appreciate the reply and this may be a good discussion, but you're wrong on your points. Let me address each issue: 1) An Iron Condor is a credit spread and one does not want direction. Additionally, option plays with a directional bias still produce a negative expectation, so either way...

Are options a "bad bet" long term? My math indicates they are and I'm truly hoping someone can meet the challenge and PROVE me wrong. Long term performance can be evaluated in terms of trade return on investment expectation. Here is how trade ROI expectation is calculated: Expected...

Are options a "bad bet" long term? My math indicates they are and I'm truly hoping someone can meet the challenge and PROVE me wrong. Long term performance can be evaluated in terms of trade return on investment expectation. Here is how trade ROI expectation is calculated: Expected...