Recent content by Longtermtrader

th thanks

Hi Maverick, would you mind explaining me better this concept? thanks LTT

Hi Martinghoul, I understand the point regarding the odds, and I agree with you in general. However, what drives me crazy is comparing for example 3 March with 29 March levels, where the odds were about the same. 3 March EurUsd was 1.0991, today it is 1.1340 The same goes for SP500 future...

Couldn't agree more with you. Trading lower timeframes is my only antidote for this craziness.

Posted about the same subject, about the same time as you. Don't know what or who to blame for this market, but I was sure that Yellen speech was going to get this reaction even before it started. The point is, I am not sure that fading this (dumb) moves can be a workable strategy, because as...

Was it significantly different to market expectations? I mean, yesterday move was not even that big, but last week's reaction to Fed decision to leave rates unchanged could have only been explained where market participants were estimating a reasonable chance of rate hike. But, am I leaving on...

I know it's maybe dumb, and perhaps I even know the answer to this same question (or at least some of the answers), but still I don't get market reactions to some news (which in fact are not news at all). Below the 5min chart of EurUsd, with highlighted in blue the bar when Yellen started...

Trades: Yesterday I opened a short trade on live cattle (June at 123,675). Not a good result so far, but I still have a down view on it. Today, at market open I will reduce my long position in sugar from 3 to 2. Yesterday it's been quite a ride from a pullback, so time to deleverage in my view...

Hi Handle, I see your point, and I accept that going out of long JPY can be counterintuitive at this moment. The thing is, in my backtests, that I ran over 30 instruments and 10 years, my main system return a Sharpe ratio after costs of 0.92 (I derived it from monthly returns, so I reduced it...

Today I closed my long position in JPY and my short in NG. Although I aim at having a mainly trend following system, I recently came to realize that there are moments where, while the trend is still there, staying in the market is not that efficient. I'd say that these can be loosely...

Hi GAT, thanks for your advice. Actually I have no issues going non US, since I am european. The thing is, when I started analyzing and backtesting, I found much easier to have reliable free historical data on US markets, and then I suppose I remained biased in this sense. But I will sure give...

I took some time offline to work on my trading plan, do some more backtesting, developing new ideas and so on. While I didn't overturn my trading approach, I felt the need to know better my trading systems and to really feel confident about what I was doing. After two years studying...

I suppose that being long term is more of a mindset. I too put together very long term trend following with short term mean reversion, but the idea is always to try and benefit from the medium to long term trend. And as far as I understood what you're doing, looks to me that you are doing the...

Hi GAT, it is not that I don't have financial contracts, but I try to avoid high correlated contracts as much as I can, since I am not trading the largest portfolio. So, for bonds I only put 30y TBond in my shopping list, but the thing is in these two years I never got any single signal on it...