Recent content by longtermpunt

Jem I think you are right the supply was more like 1.84 m for 2004. I added the units built each month and I don't think that should be the done - since these were seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Take a look at Table 5 entitiled New Privately Owned Housing Units Completed. Add all the number of units built each month and you will have the amount. The document is a public document that comes out with the Housing starts and Building Permits from the US Census Beareau and Department of...

60 m houses needed you say by 2030? Do you know how many privately owned construction units were completed in 2004? 20,000,000 (in 2004 alone). At the rate we're going by 2030 we'll have 500,000,000.

There have been articles written that support both the bull and the bear case for real estate. Some of the arguments for the bear case: 1) majority of population cannot afford to buy a home 2) wage raise not commensurate to increase in home prices 3) household debt level at historic high...

Double in 9 years? That is the norm I guess if not in a bubble. But I have witnessed a property market bust where 9 years after the bubble, prices remained BELOW their peak. It is similar to buying the stock market in 1929 - 20 yrs. after prices still remained below peak. But who knows if...

Yes. A winner into a loser. I was going for the home run. I was going for the kill. But instead I got killed. So whatever you do. Don't do what I did. Also happens after a string of wins and I feel invinsible. Yeah right. Then whamo. Back to reality.

I get slapped by the market when I do not respect my stop or do not put a stop. I fell in love with an idea. I worked out the fundamentals well. I researched and did the numbers and came to the conclusion that I could not lose (and it would be insane to do the opposite). Therefore, when I...

Investment analyst. No wager involved. But lots of writing and number crunching.