Recent content by lcamargo

A 50/50 chance is a very rare occurrence for a fixed magnitude and time frame. As I said in my previous post, I believe that the three variables direction, magnitude and time have to be considered together. And that the probabilities for one direction over the other are not symmetrical most of...

I agree with this point of view as the subjective aspect of trading, which in my mind is the skill to pick up the best point in time when an ever changing distribution of probabilities tilt in your favor. This is the way I see it: Most of the time, one direction will have more probabilities...

Momo, I was not attacking the system you were talking about and I don’t want to start a flame war. I just happened to find this topic interesting and maybe got carried away a little, but it was not my intention to criticize you in particular. Please accept my apologies. > This is not...

> I never made my money in this game being "right" more > than "wrong"... I always made my money by being more "right" > than "wrong"... Hehe, exactly ! R = "right" / "wrong" :D

> you've made some good posts. the trouble is finding a system > that allows you to get that 55% success rate. >have fun getting 3x your risk 55% of the time! this is the >problem everyone has with >trading....and this is what no one is willing to talk about. > what system will give you...

momo, > You should be looking for those trades with high high > probabilities of success. The point is that, there is more than one way to achieve a given return on investment: EROI = t(RT + T – 1 ) As you said, you can use a system that provides a high probability of success...

nitro, Thank you for you comments. I find that aproaching trading as a statistical exercise helps me keep my emotions in check and to practice good money management. You may find the following interesting: tMn(RT+T-1)=N Where: t is your profit target expressed as a percentage of M...

I avoid entering trades randomly (grin). But think I can show you that the better trade management you have, the better chance you have of making it, even if entering randomly. I believe that the most important statistic for a trader is the net gain / net loss ratio. Lets call it R. Knowing...